Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,092 total articles
Morgan Stanley now anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates next year, abandoning an earlier prediction for cuts in 2026. The change follows a closely split Fed decision to hold policy rates that pushed Treasury yields to a one-month high and strengthened the dollar amid continued inflation above the 2% target and res…
Colombia’s central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate on Thursday as officials attempt to curb rising inflation, even as questions persist about the participation of the government’s representative on the board. A Reuters poll showed most economists expect a 50-basis-point hike, with others forecasting a larger move or no change.
Federal Reserve policy language and a sharp rise in oil on geopolitical tensions have prompted a notable move higher in U.S. Treasury yields, as traders abandon near-term rate cut expectations and begin to price in the chance of a rate increase by April 2027. Equity markets, led by large-cap technology names reporting broadly positive first-quarter…
Two months into the conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, global markets are recalibrating to a persistent supply shock in energy that is lifting prices and raising recession risks for energy-importing economies. Brent crude has climbed to roughly $112 a barrel - more than 50% above pre-conflict levels - while forecasts and market measures…
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady while revealing an unusually large minority of dissenters among its voters, underscoring divisions that have emerged ahead of Kevin Warsh’s scheduled takeover as chair on May 15. Officials debated revising post-meeting guidance to make a rate hike as plausible as a cut, but the majority opted to prese…
The U.S. House on Wednesday approved a three-year budget blueprint that creates a pathway for Congress to consider an additional $70 billion in spending for immigration enforcement. The measure passed 215-211 with no Democratic support after House leadership held the roll call open for more than five hours to secure Republican votes. With the Senat…
AI-focused stocks in Asia strengthened after a series of mostly positive earnings reports, led by a strong showing from Alphabet and solid results from Microsoft and Amazon. At the same time, a sharp jump in oil prices and a more hawkish tilt among central banks pushed government bond yields higher and lifted the U.S. dollar, with the yen falling t…
China’s manufacturing activity accelerated in April to its fastest rate since late 2020, driven by stronger production and a marked increase in new orders, according to the private RatingDog PMI compiled by S&P Global. The index climbed to 52.2 from 50.8 in March, comfortably above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and …
The U.S. dollar held near a more-than-two-week high after several Federal Reserve officials adopted a tougher stance on inflation, lifting Treasury yields to their highest levels since late March. The yen slipped past 160 per dollar, bringing intervention risks into focus as oil prices climbed amid uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
U.S. officials are urging foreign governments to join a proposed 'Maritime Freedom Construct' designed to restore safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative, outlined in an internal State Department cable cited by a report, would emphasize information-sharing, coordinated diplomatic responses, and sanctions enforcement, and could in…
The Bank of England is widely expected to leave its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% when its Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision, as officials and markets assess whether surging energy costs from the Iran conflict will produce persistent inflation or instead deepen an economic slowdown. All economists in a Reuters poll predicted no change…
The Bank of Japan has signalled a likely rate increase at its June meeting by adopting unusually direct language about upside inflation risks, while keeping policy unchanged for now at 0.75%. The guidance assumes the Middle East conflict eases, crude prices fall and supply disruptions remain contained - an assumption that analysts say leaves the ce…
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but signaled that further tightening remains a possibility if the recent jump in energy-driven inflation becomes entrenched. Officials are watching for second-round effects even as services-sector cooling and slowing growth provide some relief. Markets largely expect a June rate increase if oi…
Brazil's monetary authority reduced its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% in a unanimous decision, marking a second consecutive easing move. Policymakers refrained from providing forward guidance and said future rate adjustments will depend on new information about the economic effects of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. The bank c…
The Federal Reserve's latest policy statement drew an unusually high number of dissents, with three regional bank presidents objecting to wording that implies a bias toward future rate cuts. Their concern reflects unease at signaling easier policy while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and energy prices have risen. The split underscores …
Oil climbed toward $120 a barrel as supply concerns intensified, while a sharply split Federal Reserve vote to hold rates saw U.S. bond yields rise and equities struggle. The Fed's decision marked its most divided vote since 1992, and markets reacted to signs of higher yields, a firmer dollar and mixed tech earnings from major U.S. cloud and intern…
U.S. equities traded unevenly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a notably divided decision, while a sharp climb in crude prices tied to potential Iranian port disruptions and a slate of high-profile tech earnings scheduled after the close left investors cautious. Corporate reports and capital spending indicators added to the d…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his final news conference in the role, saying he will not return to lead future briefings as Kevin Warsh prepares to assume leadership in mid-June. Powell expressed pride in the work completed with colleagues, noted that markets still price in the Fed's 2 percent inflation target credibility, and report…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the U.S. economy as "quite resilient" amid an energy shock tied to the Iran war and said growth should exceed 2% this year, driven by steady consumer spending and substantial business investment in data centers. Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to bring inflation back to 2%, and said inflation sho…
Wall Street traders pushed up the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year after signals from Fed officials that suggested policy may remain tighter for longer. Interest-rate futures climbed to imply an 11% chance of a hike, up from 5% earlier the same day and zero percent the previous trading day, while the odds of a cut sat n…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters he intends to return to his role as a Fed governor when his term as chair ends in May, will keep a low profile while remaining on the board for an unspecified period, and does not plan to act as a 'shadow chair' exerting outsized influence over monetary policy. He said he will try to support the ne…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he will remain in his role until he judges it is appropriate to step down, and that his choice to stay reflects concern about a string of legal challenges to the Fed. He warned those actions risk undermining the central bank's capacity to conduct monetary policy independently of political pressures and empha…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain a member of the central bank's Board of Governors after his term as chair ends on May 15. Speaking at a press conference after the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Powell said he will continue as a governor for an undetermined period, intends to keep a low profile, will not a…
Summary: Russia's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, the first quarterly decline since early 2023, according to preliminary Economy Ministry data. Officials and analysts attributed the drop to a mix of tight monetary conditions, higher taxes, adverse weather for construction, labour shortages and a strong rouble. The performance promp…
Traders continued to price in no interest-rate cuts this year and likely not until well into the next year after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the April policy meeting. The decision included three public dissents opposing the central bank's signaling of an 'easing bias,' while market-implied odds of cuts were largely erased …
