Economy April 29, 2026 02:18 PM

Traders Maintain Expectations That Fed Will Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year

Fed holds policy rate; dissents surface as markets pare bets on cuts amid oil-driven geopolitical worries

By Caleb Monroe
Traders Maintain Expectations That Fed Will Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year

Traders continued to price in no interest-rate cuts this year and likely not until well into the next year after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the April policy meeting. The decision included three public dissents opposing the central bank's signaling of an 'easing bias,' while market-implied odds of cuts were largely erased and oil-driven volatility briefly nudged some small bets toward a hike.

Key Points

  • Fed left the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 meeting - impacts fixed-income and interest-rate-sensitive markets
  • Three regional Fed presidents (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan) dissented against signaling an 'easing bias' - highlights internal policy disagreement relevant to bond traders and financial institutions
  • Rate-futures traders largely erased bets on cuts this year and briefly added tiny bets on a hike after an oil price spike tied to concerns over a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports - links energy market moves to short-term rate expectations

April 29 - Traders on Wednesday largely stuck with expectations that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates this year or well into the next, after the U.S. central bank left short-term borrowing costs unchanged for the third consecutive meeting in 2024.

At its April 28-29 meeting the Fed held the federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The statement produced three dissents from regional Fed leaders who objected to the central bank continuing to signal that the next policy move would likely be a reduction in rates. Those dissenting were Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

Market reaction was swift. Earlier on Wednesday, traders in rate futures nearly removed bets on a rate cut this year and, in the immediate aftermath of a jump in oil prices driven by renewed concerns over a prolonged U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, added very small bets on a rate increase.

The April meeting is widely expected to be Jerome Powell's last as Fed chair. President Donald Trump has been publicly critical of Powell for not moving to lower rates. Trump has said he expects his nominee to succeed Powell, Kevin Warsh, to deliver rate reductions when he takes office on May 15; Warsh, for his part, has said he did not promise the president he would enact such cuts.

Also casting a different vote at the meeting was Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in favor of an immediate rate cut. The record shows Miran has voted for a reduction at each meeting since he began his role in September.


Market participants and observers will watch for how these internal divisions and geopolitical developments, particularly those affecting oil, influence expectations for the timing of any policy loosening. For now, the dominant market view remains that cuts are unlikely this year and that the Fed's current stance will persist well into the next year.

Risks

  • Timing of rate cuts remains uncertain, amplified by dissent within the Fed - this uncertainty affects fixed-income markets and interest-rate sensitive sectors
  • Geopolitical developments that push oil prices higher could alter market expectations for policy moves and volatility in energy and futures markets
  • Leadership transition at the Fed - with this meeting likely Jerome Powell's last and Kevin Warsh expected to take over on May 15, market expectations about future policy could shift depending on the incoming chair's actions and statements

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