OPEC+ members are convening for talks this weekend as the alliance attempts to present a united front following the shock departure of the United Arab Emirates. Delegates say the immediate objective is to show that the coalition still functions despite the loss of one of its most prominent long-term participants.
According to a Bloomberg report, the group’s sub-committee - now narrowed to seven lead members - has provisionally agreed to a modest increase in production quotas for June. The planned uplift is set at 188,000 barrels per day, a number that reflects the originally intended volume for June minus the share attributed to Abu Dhabi.
Officials and delegates characterized the proposed hike as mostly symbolic. With the Persian Gulf conflict continuing to choke off regional oil shipments, the alliance’s priority in the near term is maintaining an "air of business-as-usual" and reassuring markets that established quota mechanics will remain in force even after the UAE’s exit.
Maintaining the quota path
Before Abu Dhabi announced its decision to leave after almost six decades of membership, delegates expects a small supply increase for June in line with the trajectory set in the previous two months. The 188,000 bpd figure that the sub-committee is now preparing to ratify corresponds to that planned boost with Abu Dhabi’s specific allocation removed. The adjustment is intended to signal continuity in policy rather than a change driven by the internal split.
The UAE’s decision to depart followed prolonged friction with Saudi Arabia over Abu Dhabi’s production capacity ambitions. The exit is the most significant in the coalition’s history and, by removing a major, long-standing member, raises questions about the group’s collective clout. That influence is already under pressure from the growth of U.S. shale production.
Market resilience amid supply disruptions
Market participants have largely moved past the immediate implications of the UAE’s withdrawal, focusing instead on the physical supply constraints tied to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the negotiations to resolve the nine-week Iran conflict. Brent futures settled near $108 a barrel on Friday, down from recent four-year highs, even as analysts note the conflict has produced the largest supply disruption in history.
Sharp increases in the prices of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are beginning to influence consumer behavior. Observers warn that this kind of "demand destruction" could intensify as global inventories are drawn down, elevating the risk of a broader economic slowdown. For the remaining OPEC+ members, a key near-term challenge will be avoiding further defections and preventing a collapse in adherence to quotas once the current physical production constraints ease.
Summary
OPEC+ is pushing forward with a provisional 188,000 bpd quota increase for June, a measure designed to preserve the appearance of continuity after the UAE's exit. The move is largely symbolic against a backdrop of major regional supply disruptions and sustained market focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran conflict.
Key sectors affected include: oil and gas producers, refined fuels markets (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel), and broader macroeconomic indicators tied to consumer fuel costs.