Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,901 total articles
Crude prices moved higher and markets were caught off guard after reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel, the Ever Lovely, in the Strait of Hormuz. The hit - which damaged the ship’s bridge but caused no casualties or environmental harm - came days after a 60-day U.S.-Iran accord aimed at reope…
British government bond yields fell to their lowest readings since April 17 as markets reduced expectations for near-term Bank of England rate increases. Two-year gilts led the decline, while longer-dated bonds lagged peers in the U.S. and Germany. Traders cited easing oil prices and unresolved questions about inflation and central bank policy as t…
Brazil's central bank moved to clarify its policy stance after markets interpreted new language as extending the time frame for returning inflation to target. The bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% for the third consecutive meeting and said aiming to reach the inflation target by end-2027 would imply inflation falling below the 3%…
The International Monetary Fund said the U.S. economy is exhibiting solid growth momentum, with first-quarter GDP revised up to a 2.1% annualized pace. IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal but is expected to ease, endorsing the Fed’s recent decision to hold its policy rate and welcoming the new Fed…
The International Monetary Fund said the U.S. economy sustained solid growth momentum and forecast that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's 2% objective by the end of 2027. IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack cited an upward revision to first-quarter GDP, a recovery in government consumption, strong investment and elevated labor productivity while …
A cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining damage to its bridge southeast of Dahit, Oman, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported. There were no reported casualties or environmental consequences. The incident followed multiple commercial ships reversing course and coincided with radio broadcasts al…
Iran is pursuing a plan to collect roughly $40 billion a year by imposing charges for security, safety and environmental services on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has examined international models and is presenting the proposal to regional neighbors and China; U.S. and Gulf officials have publicly rejected tolling of international…
Brazil's central bank governor Gabriel Galipolo told reporters that recent wording in the bank's policy statement created confusion because policymakers tried to pack too much explanation into limited space. He and director Picchetti stressed that the edits do not represent a change in monetary policy, and argued that offering forward guidance is u…
Brazil's tax take for May rose 10.69% in real terms from the same month a year earlier, reaching 266.793 billion reais ($51.32 billion), the highest May collection on record, official figures show. The revenue boost reflected an exceptional 7 billion reais in corporate income tax payments and 1 billion reais from a temporary export tax on oil and f…
The International Monetary Fund reported a decline in energy, fertilizer and base metal prices following a U.S.-Iran agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while warning that a full return to pre-conflict price levels will take time. The Fund will reassess its April growth scenarios on July 8 and singled out vulnerable net e…
The International Monetary Fund reports that energy and commodity prices have retreated following the U.S.-Iran agreement to stop hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but cautions that full normalization of prices and Gulf trade flows will require time. The Fund's next World Economic Outlook update on July 8 will determine whether to retain…
The International Monetary Fund says Argentina has met its obligations to the Fund and the IMF is confident it will continue to do so, while IMF staff recently warned that the country's repayment capacity is exposed to exceptional risks tied to low liquid reserves, large near-term debt maturities and potential volatility ahead of the 2027 President…
Brazil’s central bank signaled that the ultimate scope of interest rate reductions in the current easing cycle will be guided by new economic data. Interim economic policy director Paulo Picchetti said policymakers are avoiding explicit forward guidance to retain flexibility, pointed to an upward revision in the 2026 GDP forecast that still implies…
Officials say Turkey's central bank will hold higher borrowing costs through its next policy meeting on July 23 and will not resume weekly repo funding before that date, with policymakers opting to assess incoming inflation data first. The bank kept its one-week repo rate at 37% this month and has been using a 40% overnight rate since stopping fund…
A federal judge in Boston on June 25 stopped President Donald Trump’s executive order that sought to impose new rules on mail-in voting. The order, signed March 31, would have directed federal agencies to produce lists of confirmed U.S. citizens for each state and required the U.S. Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters on state-approved …
Brazil's central bank updated its inflation and growth projections, forecasting annual inflation of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2028 - close to the 3.0% target - while significantly revising inflation higher through 2027 amid resilient activity. Policymakers also lifted the growth forecast for this year to 2.0% and noted factors such as normalizi…
Brazil's consumer price index rose 0.41% in the month to mid-June, below economists' 0.44% forecast, while the 12-month inflation rate accelerated to 4.80% from 4.64%. Food and beverages and housing accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. The central bank's updated forecasts show inflation easing to the target by 2028 but a deteri…
The U.S. PCE price index climbed 4.1% year-on-year in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023, as higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict pushed gasoline prices up. Core PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year. Consumer spending increased 0.7% in May, supported by larger tax refunds and a stock market rally, even as savings are being d…
Consumer prices in Brazil rose 0.41% in the month to mid-June, slightly beneath market expectations. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.80% year-on-year, staying above the central bank's 3% target band. Food and housing were the largest contributors to the monthly rise, though both moderated from May. The central bank has revised its inflation outlo…
A U.S. district judge in Washington, D.C. has enjoined a Department of Education regulation that would have tightened student loan eligibility for many graduate programs in nursing and other health fields. The court concluded the department lacked authority to narrow the regulatory definition of "professional degree" after Congress adopted an exist…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Bahrain that Gulf countries expressed no support for any tolling or fee arrangement for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio said fees and tolls are equivalent and called a tolling system unworkable. He also discussed Iran-related negotiations, regional tensions between Israel and Lebanon, …
KKR reported more than $900 million in monetization income for the second quarter through June 24, marking a notable pickup in exit activity compared with the first quarter and its recent quarterly trend. The firm said the second-quarter pace is well above its three-year quarterly average, and cited stronger sponsor-backed IPO activity as a contrib…
Wolfe Research economist Stephanie Roth argues that the long-running bet on currency debasement may be reversing. She points to a near-25% drop in gold since late February, a broad-based dollar advance, falling Treasury yields and bitcoin's changing correlation with the dollar as evidence that the market is repricing away from debasement-driven ass…
BofA Global Research has withdrawn its projection that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year, calling the decision a "close call". The change reflects falling energy prices, moderating inflation and a weaker economic backdrop. The firm now expects rates to remain unchanged, and has pared back earlier forecasts for 2027 cuts.
A new study examining immigration trends across wealthy OECD countries finds that higher inflows over the past 35 years are strongly associated with faster growth in GDP per worker and increased investment. The paper reports that an inflow equal to 1% of population correlates with a 1.2% rise in productivity within five years and 1.9% within ten ye…
