U.S. stock futures rose modestly as the market reacted to renewed optimism about a possible de-escalation in the Middle East and a stream of corporate results that delivered both surprises and headwinds.
Market backdrop and futures movement
By 03:09 ET (07:09 GMT), the main U.S. futures contracts were trading higher: the Dow futures contract had gained 156 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were up 29 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 91 points, or 0.3%. The move followed gains in the main Wall Street averages in the previous session and reflected a cautious improvement in investor sentiment driven in part by diplomatic developments in the Gulf.
Remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised expectations that an agreement with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be close, while Qatar, acting as a regional negotiator, provided upbeat commentary on the status of talks. Those signals weighed on oil prices, which eased after the initial reaction, helping to calm fears of energy-driven inflation and related central bank tightening.
Government debt markets also rallied, with U.S. Treasury yields moving lower. That rally lost some momentum after comments from Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid, who argued that returning inflation to the central bank irectional 2% goal will require "tighter policy."
Selective winners and sector moves
Several individual stocks led notable moves. Palantir shares surged almost 30% after the data analytics company raised its full-year revenue outlook and posted quarterly sales gains CEO Alex Karp called "otherworldly." Snap saw shares rise following a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss, and industrial heavyweight Caterpillar added over 5% after lifting its 2026 sales forecast.
Semiconductor names broadly performed well, with investors appearing "increasingly willing to lean back into the capex theme that looked under pressure" during earlier volatility. Strong demand for AI systems and the necessary infrastructure remained a tailwind even as some market participants questioned the sustainability of very large AI-related spending programs.
Diplomatic developments
President Donald Trump told Fox News that the White House had "very good" discussions with Iran in marathon negotiations, and said the Strait of Hormuz should be "open very soon." He warned that Iran would "get hit really hard" if it reneged on a prospective agreement. The comments reinforced hopes the months-long Gulf conflict could be nearing a resolution.
Analysts cautioned that markets have grown used to cycles of threats and apparent progress in the region, and that investors will focus closely on whether any deal is formally announced and on its details. As Deutsche Bank analysts put it, "Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, so plenty of attention will be on whether a deal is announced imminently and its details."
Brent crude futures were last noted higher by 0.8% at $80.01 a barrel after having slid to a little over $79 a barrel in the prior session.
SpaceX first earnings since IPO; heavy AI capital spending a concern
SpaceX released its first earnings report since a high-profile public debut in June, and the market reaction was mixed. In extended-hours trading, SpaceX shares fell by more than 7% as investors weighed robust revenue growth and narrowing net losses against very large capital expenditures that pushed the company's free cash flow deeply negative for the first quarters of the year.
Capital spending totaled $18.36 billion for the period, up $2.8 billion from a year earlier. Of that total, $15.8 billion was attributed to SpaceX's AI unit. The company emphasized its intent to become a major player in AI during its investor presentation tied to the IPO, while continuing to operate across rocket launches and satellite internet services.
Despite the heavy outlay for AI, SpaceX's satellite business remained the primary revenue driver. Revenue at that segment rose 66% to $4.3 billion, buoyed by a doubling of subscribers to the Starlink service. On an overall basis, second-quarter sales jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, and the company's net loss narrowed.
In typically ambitious terms, CEO Elon Musk discussed long-term targets including eventual revenue of $1 trillion and floated the possibility of launching data centers into orbit next year. Analysts at Vital Knowledge summarized the results by noting, "[T]he revenue and EBITDA results are great, but the cash flow numbers are pretty ugly."
AMD sees strong sales but hit by Musk's supplier choice
Advanced Micro Devices reported sterling quarterly sales, posting $11.5 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 27, topping Wall Street expectations and marking the fifth consecutive quarter of record sales.
AMD's data center business reached an all-time high of $6.7 billion, representing 58% of total sales, up from 42% a year earlier, underscoring the company's significant exposure to AI-driven demand. Yet after-hours trading weighed on AMD shares when Elon Musk announced that SpaceX would no longer buy processors from AMD and instead "build exclusively" on Nvidia's Blackwell AI server, calling it the "best architecture." Musk had previously indicated that SpaceX and Tesla would utilize chips from both AMD and Nvidia.
Impact on chip sector and capex theme
The episode highlighted how procurement choices by large AI users can have immediate market implications for semiconductor vendors. Even as the broader semiconductor group posted another strong session, individual company fortunes are being shaped by where major AI workloads are placed and by capital allocation decisions at firms deploying those workloads.
Pharma: Novo Nordisk raises guidance but Wegovy pill sales disappoint
Denmark's Novo Nordisk raised its full-year guidance, saying it now expects adjusted sales and operating profit to fall by up to 6% at constant exchange rates this year, an improvement from its previous outlook that forecast declines of 4% to 12% for both measures. The company attributed the updated outlook to resilient demand for its weight-loss drugs.
Despite the upgraded guidance, the stock retreated after the company reported that sales of the oral version of Wegovy came in at 3.2 billion Danish kroner in the second quarter, roughly $500 million, falling short of the 3.3 billion kroner analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected. The injectable form of Wegovy generated 19.48 billion kroner in sales during the quarter. Shares listed in Copenhagen also declined following the report and disappointing study results for an experimental next-generation weight-loss drug.
What to watch next
- Developments in Gulf negotiations and any formal announcement regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which could further influence oil prices and inflation expectations.
- Follow-up on SpaceX's capital spending plans for AI and how that affects free cash flow metrics in coming quarters, along with details on subscriber growth at Starlink.
- Procurement choices by large AI users, such as SpaceX's shift toward Nvidia's Blackwell AI server, and the implications for semiconductor vendors' revenue mixes.
Bottom line
Market moves are being driven by an unusual mix of geopolitical diplomacy, big-cap company earnings, and the powerful influence of AI-related spending decisions. While futures showed modest gains on hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East and oil-price relief, firm-level results and strategic announcements from executives like Elon Musk are continuing to produce sharp stock-specific moves across technology, semiconductor, and aerospace sectors.