Economy

Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.

Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.

Articles

5,904 total articles

BofA Backs Away From Forecasting Bank of England Hikes As Inflation Eases

BofA Backs Away From Forecasting Bank of England Hikes As Inflation Eases

BofA Global Research has withdrawn its projection that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year, calling the decision a "close call". The change reflects falling energy prices, moderating inflation and a weaker economic backdrop. The firm now expects rates to remain unchanged, and has pared back earlier forecasts for 2027 cuts.

High-Immigrant Nations See Large Productivity and Investment Gains, Study Finds

High-Immigrant Nations See Large Productivity and Investment Gains, Study Finds

A new study examining immigration trends across wealthy OECD countries finds that higher inflows over the past 35 years are strongly associated with faster growth in GDP per worker and increased investment. The paper reports that an inflow equal to 1% of population correlates with a 1.2% rise in productivity within five years and 1.9% within ten ye…

Researchers Say Simpler Bank Rules Could Create Evasion Pathways

Researchers Say Simpler Bank Rules Could Create Evasion Pathways

A new research paper to be shown at the European Central Bank's Sintra conference next week argues that reducing the complexity of bank regulation can unintentionally weaken the system by making rules easier to circumvent. The study, which includes work from Stockholm School of Economics professor Mariassunta Giannetti, finds that simpler rules are…

IMF Predicts Swiss Growth Will Dip Before Picking Up in 2027

IMF Predicts Swiss Growth Will Dip Before Picking Up in 2027

The International Monetary Fund projects Switzerland's economic expansion will weaken in the short term, slowing to 1.1% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, before picking up to 1.2% in 2027. Adjustments for scheduled sporting events lower the 2026 growth estimate to 0.8% and raise the 2027 figure to 1.5%. The IMF also expects full-year inflation to run at …

Markets Price in Hikes the Fed May Not Deliver as Inflation Path Divides Opinion

Markets Price in Hikes the Fed May Not Deliver as Inflation Path Divides Opinion

The Federal Reserve’s policy path has become harder to forecast as futures traders price in rate increases that many asset managers doubt will materialize. Energy-driven inflation, slackening wage growth and housing weakness are cited by some who expect disinflation and eventual cuts, while the Fed’s hawkish tone and reduced forward guidance have f…

BofA Sees Risk of Brazil Rate Rises in 2027 as Fed Path Tightens

BofA Sees Risk of Brazil Rate Rises in 2027 as Fed Path Tightens

Bank of America says the Brazilian central bank has likely finished cutting interest rates and will keep the Selic at 14.25% for an extended period. The firm warns that the probability distribution now places non-negligible weight on a future rate increase in 2027, after revisions to its U.S. Federal Reserve outlook reduce room for additional easin…

Dubai Courts Businesses to Shore Up Hub Status After Iran Strikes Shake Confidence

Dubai Courts Businesses to Shore Up Hub Status After Iran Strikes Shake Confidence

In early March, following Iranian strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai’s senior officials assembled a large, private meeting of business leaders to coordinate measures aimed at preventing capital flight and economic damage. Attendees were asked how to restore tourists and investors and what support firms needed. Authorities have si…

Micron's strong demand report revives AI chip rally and lifts Korean markets

Micron's strong demand report revives AI chip rally and lifts Korean markets

Micron's earnings and sales update signalled robust demand for high-bandwidth memory, including $22 billion of customer commitments, reigniting an AI-driven rally that pushed South Korean chipmakers and the KOSPI sharply higher. The report eased some investor concerns over stretched AI valuations, but bond-market rate bets and a weakening yen keep …

BOJ Official Advocates Regular Rate Hikes to Reach 2% Neutral Rate

BOJ Official Advocates Regular Rate Hikes to Reach 2% Neutral Rate

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura has advocated for a systematic approach to monetary policy normalization, recommending interest rate increases at intervals of a few months. This strategy aims to lift the policy rate toward a neutral level estimated at 2%, which stands above the current 1% benchmark. Tamura anticipates persistent inflationar…

Dollar Strengthens on Rate-Hike Expectations Amid Economic Outperformance

Dollar Strengthens on Rate-Hike Expectations Amid Economic Outperformance

The U.S. dollar has broken through significant technical resistance levels, posting its strongest monthly gain in nearly a year. Traders are aggressively positioning for higher short-term interest rates, driven by expectations of continued U.S. economic outperformance and a shift in Federal Reserve policy tone. This surge has rippled across global …

Japanese Authorities Signal Demand for BOJ to Maintain Accommodative Stance

Japanese Authorities Signal Demand for BOJ to Maintain Accommodative Stance

Japan's government is preparing to formally request that the Bank of Japan maintain a monetary policy stance that actively supports private sector demand. According to a draft of the nation's long-term economic blueprint, the administration prioritizes keeping borrowing costs low to foster price stability and economic expansion. This directive unde…

NY Fed Official Clarifies FOMC's Stance on Ample Reserves Policy

NY Fed Official Clarifies FOMC's Stance on Ample Reserves Policy

Dina Marchioni, director of money markets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, recently addressed recent updates to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) language regarding the ample reserves system. Speaking at the Crane's Money Fund Symposium, she emphasized that the new phrasing reflects minor adjustments rather than a strategic shift in …

Brazil Expands Economic Inclusion Measures for Gig Workers and Micro-Businesses

Brazil Expands Economic Inclusion Measures for Gig Workers and Micro-Businesses

The Brazilian government has signaled imminent policy adjustments designed to bolster the micro-entrepreneur (MEI) sector, a foundational component of the national economy. According to the Ministry of Entrepreneurship, these measures will be rolled out in the coming days and focus on three primary areas: recalibrating the income ceiling for benefi…

Bond Yields Drop as Energy Prices Dampen Inflation Fears

Bond Yields Drop as Energy Prices Dampen Inflation Fears

U.S. bond yields experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, driven by a sharp drop in oil prices to a four-month low. This energy slump effectively mitigated inflation concerns for markets, although the positive sentiment was not fully transmitted to equity markets. Persistent anxieties regarding technology sector valuations weighed heavily on…

Bank of Canada Says Economy Is Weak but Stops Short of Calling a Recession

Bank of Canada Says Economy Is Weak but Stops Short of Calling a Recession

Bank of Canada officials declined to label the recent downturn a recession when they left interest rates unchanged on June 10, while acknowledging weak output, labour market slack and a notable contraction driven in part by a drop in weapons-systems spending. The central bank expects growth to resume in the second quarter but signalled that its pol…