Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,904 total articles
Wolfe Research economist Stephanie Roth argues that the long-running bet on currency debasement may be reversing. She points to a near-25% drop in gold since late February, a broad-based dollar advance, falling Treasury yields and bitcoin's changing correlation with the dollar as evidence that the market is repricing away from debasement-driven ass…
BofA Global Research has withdrawn its projection that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year, calling the decision a "close call". The change reflects falling energy prices, moderating inflation and a weaker economic backdrop. The firm now expects rates to remain unchanged, and has pared back earlier forecasts for 2027 cuts.
A new study examining immigration trends across wealthy OECD countries finds that higher inflows over the past 35 years are strongly associated with faster growth in GDP per worker and increased investment. The paper reports that an inflow equal to 1% of population correlates with a 1.2% rise in productivity within five years and 1.9% within ten ye…
A new research paper to be shown at the European Central Bank's Sintra conference next week argues that reducing the complexity of bank regulation can unintentionally weaken the system by making rules easier to circumvent. The study, which includes work from Stockholm School of Economics professor Mariassunta Giannetti, finds that simpler rules are…
The International Monetary Fund projects Switzerland's economic expansion will weaken in the short term, slowing to 1.1% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, before picking up to 1.2% in 2027. Adjustments for scheduled sporting events lower the 2026 growth estimate to 0.8% and raise the 2027 figure to 1.5%. The IMF also expects full-year inflation to run at …
Bain & Company reports early second-quarter signs of recovery in the global personal luxury goods market, driven by stronger U.S. demand and a gradual rebound in China. The consultancy has adjusted its central scenario to a 2% to 4% increase in personal luxury sales for the year, down from a November forecast of 3% to 5%. The study highlights shift…
The Federal Reserve’s policy path has become harder to forecast as futures traders price in rate increases that many asset managers doubt will materialize. Energy-driven inflation, slackening wage growth and housing weakness are cited by some who expect disinflation and eventual cuts, while the Fed’s hawkish tone and reduced forward guidance have f…
France faces a rapidly expanding public debt load that the national audit office says is already constraining policy options and leaving the country exposed to shifts in market sentiment. The Cour des Comptes described this fiscal position as a reality rather than a risk, warned that risks intensify in 2026, and urged a clear multi-year strategy to…
Bank of America says the Brazilian central bank has likely finished cutting interest rates and will keep the Selic at 14.25% for an extended period. The firm warns that the probability distribution now places non-negligible weight on a future rate increase in 2027, after revisions to its U.S. Federal Reserve outlook reduce room for additional easin…
Bank of America has raised its 2027 growth projection for South Korea to 2.2% from 2.0%, citing an AI-led semiconductor upcycle and improvements in the external balance. The firm keeps its 2026 GDP forecast at 3.1% year-over-year and now projects three Bank of Korea rate increases that would lift the policy rate to 3.25% by early 2027. The bank als…
In early March, following Iranian strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai’s senior officials assembled a large, private meeting of business leaders to coordinate measures aimed at preventing capital flight and economic damage. Attendees were asked how to restore tourists and investors and what support firms needed. Authorities have si…
Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee say recent changes to the central bank’s communications - shifting from a single central forecast to multiple scenarios and publishing individual explanations for votes - risk undermining collective forecasting and internal discussion. External members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor voiced co…
U.S. equity futures rose sharply as robust results from Micron and ambitious guidance from Qualcomm rekindled appetite for AI-related technology stocks. Investors are awaiting the Fed-preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, and oil dropped to levels seen before the U.S.-Iran conflict amid easing supply concerns.
EU governments on Thursday adopted legislation to eliminate import duties on a broad range of U.S. products, completing the European Union's commitment under a trade framework agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump. The move follows a decisive parliamentary approval and aims to meet a July 4 deadline tied to U.S. tariff threats; the rules become e…
Nasdaq futures rose about 2% after strong guidance from Micron and Qualcomm, which highlighted robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Micron reported $22 billion in customer commitments for its memory chips and Qualcomm forecasted $15 billion in data-center revenue by 2029. The positive outlook pushed tech shares higher across As…
A biweekly market positioning poll of 10 economists, analysts and traders found that short positions against the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee eased from multi-month highs after oil prices softened and policy actions sought to shore up capital inflows. Despite the respite for those two currencies, the South Korean won and the Thai baht con…
Micron's earnings and sales update signalled robust demand for high-bandwidth memory, including $22 billion of customer commitments, reigniting an AI-driven rally that pushed South Korean chipmakers and the KOSPI sharply higher. The report eased some investor concerns over stretched AI valuations, but bond-market rate bets and a weakening yen keep …
Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura has advocated for a systematic approach to monetary policy normalization, recommending interest rate increases at intervals of a few months. This strategy aims to lift the policy rate toward a neutral level estimated at 2%, which stands above the current 1% benchmark. Tamura anticipates persistent inflationar…
Asian stock markets posted significant gains on Thursday following robust earnings and forward-looking guidance from major semiconductor companies Micron and Qualcomm. The positive reports helped temper recent anxieties about stretched valuations in the artificial intelligence sector. Concurrently, oil prices retreated as geopolitical tensions ease…
The U.S. dollar has broken through significant technical resistance levels, posting its strongest monthly gain in nearly a year. Traders are aggressively positioning for higher short-term interest rates, driven by expectations of continued U.S. economic outperformance and a shift in Federal Reserve policy tone. This surge has rippled across global …
Japan's government is preparing to formally request that the Bank of Japan maintain a monetary policy stance that actively supports private sector demand. According to a draft of the nation's long-term economic blueprint, the administration prioritizes keeping borrowing costs low to foster price stability and economic expansion. This directive unde…
Dina Marchioni, director of money markets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, recently addressed recent updates to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) language regarding the ample reserves system. Speaking at the Crane's Money Fund Symposium, she emphasized that the new phrasing reflects minor adjustments rather than a strategic shift in …
The Brazilian government has signaled imminent policy adjustments designed to bolster the micro-entrepreneur (MEI) sector, a foundational component of the national economy. According to the Ministry of Entrepreneurship, these measures will be rolled out in the coming days and focus on three primary areas: recalibrating the income ceiling for benefi…
U.S. bond yields experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, driven by a sharp drop in oil prices to a four-month low. This energy slump effectively mitigated inflation concerns for markets, although the positive sentiment was not fully transmitted to equity markets. Persistent anxieties regarding technology sector valuations weighed heavily on…
Bank of Canada officials declined to label the recent downturn a recession when they left interest rates unchanged on June 10, while acknowledging weak output, labour market slack and a notable contraction driven in part by a drop in weapons-systems spending. The central bank expects growth to resume in the second quarter but signalled that its pol…
