Hungary’s central bank has portrayed a stronger forint as an important policy lever to achieve its updated consumer price index objective, Bank of America’s analysis finds. In background material accompanying the CPI target revision, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) outlined how nominal foreign exchange appreciation could play a role in easing inflationary pressure.
The NBH argued that nominal appreciation of the forint can help offset ongoing services inflation differentials versus the euro area that have arisen amid rapid wage convergence. That wage convergence, the central bank noted, has pushed services inflation higher relative to the euro area and needs to be addressed alongside exchange-rate developments.
On wages, the NBH stressed the need for growth in pay to revert toward levels compatible with productivity increases. The central bank stated current wage growth is running at about 7-8% year-over-year, a pace it views as unsustainably high relative to productivity trends.
In its assessment the NBH also conceded that Hungary’s real exchange rate for the forint has underperformed relative to its Central and Eastern European peers over the last decade. That acknowledgement forms part of the reasoning behind its approach to balancing exchange-rate and inflation dynamics.
The NBH framed its decision to set a CPI target 0.5 percentage point higher than the European Central Bank’s target as still permitting inflation to contribute to price-level convergence with the euro area. The central bank said this stance helps reduce what it described as the "excessive burden on the real economy" that rapid nominal appreciation would impose.
Assessing the trade-offs, the NBH concluded that forint appreciation is materially more useful for disinflation than it is harmful for growth. The bank reported it could not identify a long-term link between nominal appreciation and export performance across the European Union, suggesting exchange-rate strength need not be a long-run drag on external competitiveness.
Looking ahead, the NBH highlighted a political decision point for Hungary’s new government. Authorities will soon need to determine whether to proceed with the Fidesz plan to raise the minimum wage by 14% in 2027. The wage increase is subject to renegotiation if growth or inflation deviate from current projections, the central bank noted.
Market context: The analysis referenced EUR/HUF exchange-rate considerations and the interplay between nominal appreciation, inflation and real economic outcomes.