The World Bank cautions that artificial intelligence could deliver unusually fast development gains to low- and middle-income countries - potentially the equivalent of a century of progress in only ten years - but only if those countries move quickly to close gaps in electricity, connectivity and digital skills, according to a report published on Tuesday.
World Bank economists say the scale of investment now being directed at AI by companies worldwide and the policy efforts under way by governments create an opening for emerging economies to capture outsized benefits. At the same time, the report highlights a central practical challenge: many of the systems needed to exploit AI at scale - notably data centres - demand large amounts of power, forcing countries to expand generation and grid capacity to support them.
Still, the report stresses that huge bespoke models or vast new resource endowments are not prerequisites for gains. "By adapting small, low-cost AI tools to local conditions, they can bring better medical care, education, judicial services and agricultural extension within reach of millions," the World Bank's chief economist, Indermit Gill, said in a statement accompanying the report. He added that "AI has thrown developing economies a lifeline, and they should seize it."
Practical applications cited in the report include faster diagnostic support for health workers, improved lesson planning for teachers and tailored agronomic advice to help farmers decide what to plant and when. Those use cases illustrate how relatively modest AI deployments, when tailored to local needs, could extend core public and private services.
The report also compares exposure to job displacement from generative AI across country income groups. It estimates that 14.2% of jobs in high-income countries are at risk from generative AI, compared with 4.5% in low- and middle-income countries - a roughly threefold difference. The share of jobs expected to benefit from meaningful productivity gains is presented as similar across groups, at 18.7% in high-income countries and 16.2% in developing economies.
Alongside these potential gains, the World Bank urges governments to take concrete steps to unlock benefits. Key priorities include improving access to reliable electricity and internet connectivity, strengthening digital skills among the population, and broadening access to smartphones and computing devices.
At the same time, the report warns of downsides if action lags. It flags the risk that AI could exacerbate "greater income inequality, stealthier misinformation, and political repression." The report also notes that missing the opportunity would carry a heavy cost: "Today’s developing economies missed the first Industrial Revolution and spent the next two centuries paying the price," Gill said. "They cannot afford to miss this one."
The International Monetary Fund is cited in the report as saying that under favourable conditions AI could lift Sub-Saharan Africa's economy by about 4% over the next decade.
Overall, the World Bank presents AI as a significant opportunity for emerging economies - contingent, the report emphasizes, on rapid and targeted investment in power, connectivity and skills so that affordable AI tools can be adapted to local circumstances.