SAO PAULO, May 13 - A recent opinion survey by Quaest, carried out for brokerage Genial, shows the presidential race in Brazil remains exceptionally close as the country moves toward its October ballot.
In a simulated head-to-head second-round matchup included in the poll, leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is recorded at 42% of voting intention, while right-wing challenger Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is at 41%.
The pollster also presented a first-round scenario. In that configuration, Lula would receive 39% of the vote and Bolsonaro 33%. Two former right-wing governors, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, were each shown at 4% support in the first-round simulation.
The survey results follow an April poll referenced in the data set, which showed a different balance: Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40% in the comparable measure. The May results therefore reflect a shift in measured support between the two surveys, while keeping the race within a narrow margin.
Methodology and statistical considerations
Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between May 8 and May 11 for this study. The poll carries a stated margin of error of two percentage points in either direction. Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two leading contenders advance to a second-round vote - the configuration modeled in the simulated runoff.
Context provided by the poll data
- The simulated runoff figures put Lula and Bolsonaro effectively tied within the poll's margin of error, at 42% versus 41%.
- In the first-round scenario supplied by the poll, Lula leads on 39% to Bolsonaro's 33%, with two other right-leaning figures at 4% each.
- The survey sample comprised 2,004 respondents and was fielded from May 8-11; the margin of error is two percentage points.
The poll's findings underscore the narrow numerical gap between the two principal contenders as Brazil approaches the national election in October. The published figures show variation from an April reading, and the stated margin of error highlights the statistical proximity between the leading candidates.