Goldman Sachs' latest tariff impact tracker, published Thursday, reports a mixed near-term picture for U.S. imports from China: sequential softening in some shipping indicators alongside sustained year-over-year growth.
The bank's data show that laden vessels arriving from China to the United States fell 3.5% on a week-over-week basis for the period ending Thursday. Despite that sequential decline, the comparison with the same period a year earlier remained positive at 9%, down from a 22% year-over-year increase recorded the prior week.
Port-level projections for the Port of Los Angeles indicate a short-term ebb and flow. Container volumes at the nation's largest gateway are forecast to drop 14% next week, then recover with an expected 15% rise two weeks later. On a year-over-year basis, the estimates point to increases of 14% and 8% for those respective periods.
Rail intermodal traffic along the U.S. West Coast held steady in year-over-year terms, rising 4% versus the prior year and matching the previous week's performance.
Freight pricing and capacity metrics showed variation. Ocean container rates eased 0.5% from the prior week after a 4% uptick the week before; nevertheless, those rates remain 14% above the same period a year ago. On the trucking side, available West Coast truck loads fell 4% sequentially but stood 55% higher than a year earlier. Spot truck rates on the West Coast, excluding fuel, increased 21% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that import volumes through May will be informative about how shippers are timing restocking decisions in an environment of lower effective tariff rates and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The firm noted that the trajectory of double-digit year-over-year import gains points to robust restocking activity, particularly as the industry compares against Liberation Day benchmarks from the prior year.
Contextual note - The tracker compiles short-term shipping and logistics indicators to assess how tariffs and other factors are influencing trade flows. The recent data show some week-to-week cooling in vessel and truck availability measures even as year-over-year growth remains intact.
This report's figures and Goldman Sachs' commentary focus on the coming weeks as a window into how supply chain participants are responding to changing tariff dynamics and geopolitical developments.