China's economic momentum weakened markedly in April, according to Barclays' read of the latest activity indicators, with retail spending, manufacturing output and investment levels all disappointing at the outset of the second quarter.
Retail activity expanded just 0.2% year-over-year in April on Barclays' analysis, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus projection of 2.0%. That reading sits well below the first-quarter average of 2.4% and is among the weakest monthly prints since late 2022.
Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% year-over-year, contrary to the consensus expectation for a 1.7% increase. Within the investment components, infrastructure and manufacturing each recorded contractions of roughly 4%, while property investment plunged by about 20%.
Industrial production growth decelerated to 4.1% year-over-year in April, down from a 6.1% pace in the first quarter and below the consensus estimate of 6.0%. Barclays notes this marks a 33-month low for the industrial output gauge. The slowdown in production occurred despite robust export performance - exports rose 15% year-over-year from January through April - implying that weaker domestic demand has weighed on manufacturing activity.
Property sector and housing demand showed further deterioration. New home sales contracted 9.5% year-over-year in April, a larger decline than the 7.4% drop registered in the prior period. Property investment's near-20% fall contributed materially to the overall drop in fixed-asset investment.
Household borrowing also reflected caution. Households were net repayers of CNY787 billion in April, the largest net repayment on record, which produced the first bank loan contraction since July 2025.
Barclays attributes the broad-based slowdown to several forces: the fading of front-loaded stimulus measures, a weakening credit impulse and structural constraints linked to uneven growth patterns. The bank also flagged oil shocks as an additional source of pressure on activity.
Analysts and market participants will monitor upcoming releases for signs of stabilization, but April's data point to a notable softening across consumption, investment and industrial output.