Bernstein has initiated coverage of Basic-Fit NV (AS:BFIT) with an "outperform" recommendation and a price target of €43, suggesting about 45% upside from the stock's May 14 closing level of €29.62. The firm's valuation rests on a discounted cash flow framework that applies a 10.2% weighted average cost of capital and assumes a 2% terminal growth rate.
In its note, Bernstein highlighted what it sees as room for both earnings upgrades and multiple re-ratings, writing: "We see meaningful scope for earnings upgrades and re-ratings," and adding that concerns around leverage and franchise execution risk are, in its view, "now largely over-discounted."
Basic-Fit, the low-cost gym operator founded in the Netherlands, operates a network of more than 2,200 clubs across 12 countries and serves roughly six million members. The company reported €1.42 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025.
Bernstein's forecast profile anticipates revenue rising to €1.64 billion in 2026 and reaching €2.41 billion by 2030, a trajectory that equates to an 11.1% compound annual growth rate over the FY25-30 period. Adjusted earnings per share, on the firm's estimates, improve from €0.76 in fiscal 2025 to €1.49 in 2026 and to €2.83 in 2027.
On a multiples basis, Bernstein calculates an adjusted price-to-earnings multiple of 38.9 times using 2025 actuals, which it sees compressing to 19.9 times in 2026 and to 10.5 times in 2027 under its projections.
Bernstein's numbers are generally above consensus. For 2027, the firm models adjusted EPS of €2.83 versus a consensus view of €2.13, representing a 32.9% premium. Its 2027 EBIT forecast of €368.5 million is 21.2% higher than consensus and implies a 19.3% margin versus a consensus margin of 16.2%. The brokerage's estimate for EBITDA less rent in 2027 is €555.2 million, 14.3% ahead of consensus.
The research house identifies three core drivers behind the growth thesis:
- Progressive maturation of recently opened clubs, leveraging a largely fixed-cost operating model to increase contribution margins as those clubs scale.
- A franchising rollout beginning in 2026, with franchised locations expected to deliver margins that can be double those of corporate-owned sites.
- Continued network expansion toward a long-term target of more than 3,000 clubs, supported by management's guidance of roughly 50 net corporate-owned openings in 2026.
Free cash flow turned positive in fiscal 2025 at €26.1 million after several years of outflows, and Bernstein projects free cash flow to rise to €120.2 million in 2026 and to €221.4 million in 2027.
On the balance sheet, net debt excluding IFRS 16 was €1.11 billion at year-end 2025, with reported leverage of 4.8 times EBITDA. Bernstein expects leverage to decline to 3.9 times in 2026 and to 1.8 times by 2030, driven in part by a reduction in capex as a percentage of sales from 19.6% in 2025 to 14.8% by 2030.
The company carries a market capitalization of €1.93 billion and an enterprise value of €4.97 billion. Its 52-week trading range is €20.94 to €34.76, and Bernstein notes the stock is down 1.3% year-to-date and 14.5% over the past month, based on Bloomberg data cited in the note.
Overall, Bernstein's initiation frames Basic-Fit as a recovery and growth story where operating leverage, franchising economics, and network expansion are expected to drive sizable improvements in profitability and cash generation over the coming years. The firm’s forecasts place its valuation materially above current consensus on several key metrics, underpinning the €43 target and the firm's "outperform" stance.