Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,092 total articles
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told President Emmanuel Macron that the European Central Bank should wait for clear evidence inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched before raising interest rates. The ECB recently paused on rate changes but debated tightening to counter surging inflation from energy costs and signalled a p…
Barclays reiterated its forecast that the Bank of Japan will begin raising interest rates in June, on the condition that tensions in the Middle East ease. The bank sees the BoJ's latest decision as preparatory for earlier rate increases, and warns that improved geopolitical stability and clearer domestic economic signals would heighten upside infla…
U.S. stock futures traded mixed as investors digested a renewed U.S. effort to get vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz, awaited the Treasury's quarterly financing update and monitored corporate developments including GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion bid for eBay and Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly results. Market attention is divided betwe…
The European Central Bank's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters expects a near-term rise in euro zone inflation driven by elevated oil prices, but forecasters predict inflation will fall back to around the ECB's 2% target within a few years. The survey, reviewed at last week's rate-setting meeting, also forecasts slower economic growth thi…
Euro area factory purchasing accelerated in April as firms accumulated raw materials amid worries about supply disruptions and higher prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, but measures of confidence and forward-looking sentiment fell, while input costs and selling prices climbed sh…
A European Central Bank survey of large non-financial companies indicates a clear risk that a prolonged conflict in Iran, and resulting interruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, could produce an inflation surge similar to that seen after the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2022-23. While some sectors have already enacted steep price increas…
Barclays has abandoned its earlier call for a September 2026 rate cut, joining other global brokerages that now expect no easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. The bank cites prolonged higher energy prices tied to the Iran war as a driver of elevated inflation that could keep policymakers cautious. Barclays still projects a quarter-point …
European equity indices opened the week with little movement as markets digested U.S. measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Energy prices remain elevated, bond yields have advanced on inflation and policy concerns, and large investment flows into artificial intelligence continue to attract analyst attention.
A rising Green vote among urban progressives in London, exemplified in Hackney, is eroding Labour’s long-standing local dominance. As the Green Party moves left under Zack Polanski and Labour adopts tougher stances on some issues, close contests are emerging across boroughs ahead of the May 7 local elections. Polls show the Greens leading in severa…
A convergence of geopolitical and economic events - including renewed oil strength amid the Iran conflict, forthcoming U.S. payrolls, Britain's municipal elections and key central bank decisions - creates a packed week for markets. Energy-driven earnings, potential shifts in UK fiscal outlook, and a tight Reserve Bank of Australia decision round ou…
India's manufacturing sector recorded a small uptick in April, with the HSBC-S&P Global PMI rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March, yet the reading stayed near a four-year low. Firms reported weak demand, higher raw-material and fuel costs attributed to the Middle East war, and only modest gains in production and new orders. Export orders and hiring off…
U.S. President announced 'Project Freedom' to assist roughly 900 merchant vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command outlined the military assets that will support merchant transit, but operational details and the willingness of ship operators to run the strait remain unclear. Oil prices, stock futures and the dollar are only mod…
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 5 policy meeting, marking its third increase this year. The move comes amid a rebound in inflation driven in part by higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. While the hike would restore rates to late-2024 levels and reverse a brie…
South Korea's factory sector expanded at its fastest pace since February 2022 in April, according to an S&P Global purchasing managers index that rose to 53.6 from 52.6 in March. Semiconductor demand supported both production and new orders, even as disruptions to raw material supplies tied to the war in the Middle East influenced firms to increase…
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the prolonged conflict involving Iran raises the prospect of sustained higher inflation and economic damage, complicating the Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rates. Speaking on CBS's Face the Nation, Kashkari highlighted the impact of a closed Strait of Hormuz, whi…
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said the ongoing Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduce the central bank’s capacity to provide clear guidance on interest-rate policy. With energy prices surging and inflation running above target, Kashkari and several regional Fed officials dissented at the most recent FOMC meeting, …
The U.S. Attorney in Washington, Jeanine Pirro, said she will defer to the Federal Reserve's Office of Inspector General to determine whether cost overruns tied to renovations at the Fed's headquarters warrant further criminal action against Chair Jerome Powell. Pirro suspended the probe after a federal judge blocked subpoenas, and she indicated th…
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that stress within private credit markets could provoke a psychological contagion among investors, potentially triggering a wider credit pullback. While direct bank-to-private-credit linkages do not yet appear deeply problematic, Barr cited overlapping exposures in the insurance sector as an additional a…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said energy prices, which have climbed amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, should fall later this year. He made the comments on Fox Business Network's Sunday Morning Futures and reiterated that oil markets will be lower after the dispute subsides. Recent data from the American Automobile Association show g…
Finance ministers and central bank officials representing China, Japan, South Korea and the 10 members of ASEAN issued a joint statement after meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, saying they will watch for excessive volatility and disorderly market moves and stand ready to respond as domestic conditions warrant. The group also affirmed support for op…
Finance ministers and central bank governors from China, Japan, South Korea and the 10 ASEAN members said they would monitor risks tied to excessive market volatility and are prepared to take action consistent with domestic conditions. The group, known as ASEAN+3, released the statement after a meeting held on the sidelines of the Asian Development…
The Asian Development Bank has introduced a financing facility aimed at helping countries in Asia and the Pacific develop end-to-end supply chains for critical minerals. The scheme will support project preparation and fund infrastructure for processing, manufacturing and recycling. Initial backing includes $500 million memorandums from Korea Eximba…
Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras told a Cypriot newspaper that concerns about a euro zone recession are "real and justified" as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt energy supplies, lift prices and weigh on growth and inflation dynamics. He said how long and how broadly the shock transmits will determine if and how monetary…
U.S. equities closed the week at record levels, powered by strong corporate earnings, but markets face mounting headwinds from rising oil prices and a more divided Federal Reserve. Investors will parse another large slate of quarterly reports and April payrolls data next week for direction, with results from megacaps and chipmakers likely to shape …
BofA Global Research expects China’s export sector to remain resilient through 2026, with export growth forecast at 4.8% for the year despite stronger currency, elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Key drivers include surging shipments of integrated circuits, rising electric vehicle exports, and sustained global demand for renewable-en…
