Stifel on Friday moved Shopify to a Buy rating and increased its price target for the company to $150 from $110, arguing that the stock’s roughly 23% year-to-date decline creates a compelling buying opportunity for what the firm characterizes as a high-quality compounder with an expanding competitive moat.
Analyst J. Parker Lane framed Shopify as "writing the agentic commerce playbook," noting the company’s continued share gains across legacy replatforming, enterprise, business-to-business (B2B), international markets and payments. Lane said Stifel’s view is informed by survey work and industry conversations, and that the firm sees "a realistic path to 30%-plus revenue growth in 2026 and sustained mid-20s beyond."
As a key datapoint, Lane highlighted Shopify’s first-quarter gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $101 billion, a 35% increase year-on-year. Stifel interprets that jump as clear evidence Shopify is taking share from the broader U.S. retail e-commerce market, which grew 9.8% over the same period. Management, according to the note, described the strength as broad-based across geographies, merchant sizes and channels.
Stifel identified multiple vectors supporting its upgraded stance. The firm said enterprise adoption is inflecting: the count of large merchants generating more than $100 million in GMV on Shopify has "nearly doubled over the last two years." B2B GMV expanded 80% in the first quarter, while international GMV rose 45%, and cross-border transactions now represent 16% of Shopify’s total volume.
Lane also called out a structural imbalance that Stifel sees as upside opportunity: while the United States accounts for about 40% of global e-commerce sales excluding China, it made up 63% of Shopify’s 2025 revenue, suggesting room for further international expansion.
Beyond top-line prospects, Stifel emphasized Shopify’s disciplined operating model and capital allocation approach, saying those attributes provide the company flexibility as the concept of agentic commerce progresses from early stages toward scale.
Summary - Stifel upgraded Shopify to Buy and raised its price target to $150, citing strong GMV growth, expanding enterprise adoption and substantial B2B and international momentum as evidence of durable market-share gains and a path to accelerated revenue growth.
Key points
- Stifel raised its Shopify price target to $150 from $110 and upgraded the stock to Buy following a 23% year-to-date decline, which the firm views as an attractive entry point - sectors impacted: technology, retail, financial markets.
- Shopify reported Q1 GMV of $101 billion, up 35% year-on-year, outpacing U.S. retail e-commerce growth of 9.8% in the period - sectors impacted: e-commerce, retail platforms.
- Enterprise, B2B and international channels are accelerating, with large-merchant counts nearly doubling in two years, B2B GMV up 80% in Q1 and international GMV up 45% - sectors impacted: enterprise software, cross-border commerce.
Risks and uncertainties
- Macroeconomic or consumer-demand shifts could affect e-commerce volumes and therefore GMV trends - sectors impacted: retail and payments.
- Execution risk around converting international and enterprise opportunity into revenue could limit upside if adoption lags expectations - sectors impacted: technology and global commerce.
- Dependence on continued market-share gains to meet the projected revenue path means slower share gains could alter growth outcomes - sectors impacted: e-commerce platforms and investors.