Overview
Berenberg has downgraded Dürr AG to "hold" from "buy" while cutting its price target to €21 from €40. The change reflects the bank's assessment that Dürr remains heavily dependent on capital expenditure from automotive original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs), a concentration the analysts estimate to be about c53% of Dürr’s sales.
Exposure to automotive capex
In its note, Berenberg highlighted the risk that Dürr’s reliance on automotive OEM investment creates at a time when the global auto industry is undergoing a complex and volatile shift to electric vehicles. The broker said it is uncomfortable with the company's degree of exposure to the automotive end market despite substantial restructuring carried out since 2023.
Market positions and business mix
Dürr is identified in the note as a global leader in several mechanical-engineering niches: automotive paint shops, where it holds roughly a 50-60% global market share including robot-based application technology; balancing tools with an estimated 50-55% share; and wood-processing machinery with an estimated 30-35% share. The company also has up to a 10% share in production automation, the note said.
Berenberg pointed to further concentration risks within Dürr’s divisions. The woodworking segment is exposed to discretionary consumer spending, since furniture machinery represents about 29% of Dürr’s projected 2025 sales and is sensitive to consumer confidence.
Growth businesses, battery assumptions and targets under review
The analysts noted that growth-oriented areas such as production automation systems and construction solutions for timber houses together accounted for only about 14% of total sales in 2025. Management’s prior expectations for battery technology sales - previously set at €300 million to €500 million annually - have been materially revised down to an annual run-rate of €50 million to €100 million, according to the broker.
Given these reduced growth dynamics, Dürr has placed its earlier target of at least €6 billion in sales by 2030 under review, Berenberg said.
Financial outlook and valuation
Berenberg forecasts a compound annual growth rate in sales of 2.3% over 2025-28, arriving at €4.47 billion in 2028. The broker expects an adjusted EBIT margin improvement of about 120 basis points to 6.8% in 2028, which it equates to an adjusted EBIT of €305 million.
The note also discussed relative valuation metrics, saying Dürr’s shares are trading at roughly 5.4 times EV/EBIT for 2027 - below a five-year average multiple of 8.7 times. Berenberg’s own fair value estimate of €21 per share is derived from a combination of a three-stage discounted cash flow model and a peer group of capital goods companies.
What would change the view
Berenberg stated it would adopt a more positive stance if Dürr demonstrated either a material reduction in its automotive-capex-related business or if the automotive end-market became less volatile and returned to structural growth. The note included the direct line: "We would turn more positive if Dürr showed a meaningful reduction in the automotive-capex-related business and/or the automotive end-market became less volatile and returned to structural growth."
Implications for investors
Investors should note the broker’s revised forecasts, the cut in price target to €21, and the assessment that current market multiples reflect a profound structural shift in Dürr’s business model and end markets. The combination of a large share of sales tied to automotive OEM capex, weaker-than-expected battery revenues, and exposure to consumer-driven woodworking demand underpin Berenberg’s more cautious stance.
Data points and forecasts cited in this article are those presented by Berenberg in its published note.