Bernstein has moved Aena up its coverage ladder to an "outperform" recommendation from "market-perform," while increasing its price objective to €30.80 from €27. The firm said the revision reflects an improved medium-term earnings profile driven by several interlocking factors: stronger traffic assumptions in Spain, faster commercial revenue expansion, robust international operations and what it described as a "benign regulatory agreement."
Key traffic assumptions underpin Bernstein's view. The broker now expects Spanish passenger traffic to rise 3.6% in 2026 - notably above Aena's own guidance of 1.3% and the market consensus of 2.5% - and has lifted its 2026 Spanish traffic forecast by roughly 3 million passengers to 333 million.
Bernstein projects an acceleration in Spanish passenger growth to about 4% through the summer months, up from a 2.1% pace recorded in the first quarter. The firm said such an acceleration should prompt Aena to upgrade its traffic guidance.
The brokerage pointed to shifting travel flows away from the Middle East toward Southern European leisure destinations as an important tailwind for Aena's network. It also highlighted expected ongoing strength at London-Luton airport, supported by capacity growth from Wizz Air.
On the regulatory front, Bernstein reported that feedback from Spain's competition authority CNMC on the DORA III framework was "in line with our expectations." The broker said that this feedback limits the scope for tariff cuts in 2027 and therefore supports what it called "investment-led value creation."
Bernstein recounted the CNMC's specific proposals: a pre-tax weighted average cost of capital of 7.44%, below Aena's 9% proposal, and aeronautical tariffs projected to decline by 0.59% annually between 2027 and 2031 versus Aena's requested 3.82% yearly increase. The brokerage expects a final agreement to be published in September.
Despite the more constructive earnings outlook, Bernstein warned that cost and margin pressures are likely to persist for several quarters. The firm noted that Aena's average annual capital expenditure is set to nearly triple to about €2.20 billion in the next regulatory cycle, compared with roughly €4.50 billion of mainly maintenance capex spent across the prior two periods (2013-2026).
Operational cost movements in the first quarter reinforced the margin pressure message. Bernstein cited 17.8% year-on-year opex growth in Q1, which it said was partly distorted by construction activity at BOAB airports. Line-item increases included staff costs up 12.4%, maintenance costs up 20% and security costs up 8.5%.
The brokerage also flagged political and regulatory risk factors. It pointed to a March 2026 bilateral agreement with the Basque Country that prompted Aena to publicly reaffirm the constitutional limits on decentralization, and to a 2025 regulatory tariff freeze that followed airline lobbying and resulted in administrative litigation against the company.
Overall, however, Bernstein took the view that these headwinds are "well understood and more than offset by retail upside, international growth, real estate optionality and improved earnings visibility." The broker said its FY+2 EBITDA estimates are 2-3% above consensus.
In its sector ranking ahead of second-quarter results, Bernstein placed Aena at the top, followed by Flughafen Zurich, Fraport and A roports de Paris, which it retained at "market-perform" while trimming that stock's price target to €116 from €120.
Note: This report summarizes Bernstein's published views and forecasts as described above.