Standard Chartered told investors on Friday that ambiguity around Strategy's change in handling its Bitcoin assets is generating near-term volatility for the cryptocurrency, while the bank kept its end-2026 Bitcoin price forecast at $100,000.
Analyst Geoff Kendrick described Strategy - the company that was formerly MicroStrategy and currently holds the largest corporate Bitcoin position with 843,775 coins, representing more than 4% of the eventual 21 million supply - as "appearing to pivot from its 'never sell Bitcoin' mantra to a more complex approach."
The note attributes this move to a drop in Strategy's mNAV metric, which measures enterprise value divided by Bitcoin holdings. Kendrick said mNAV has declined to around 1.0 from considerably higher levels that prevailed between 2020 and mid-2025.
According to Standard Chartered, the prior model that relied on issuing shares to fund Bitcoin purchases has become less effective given those valuation dynamics. As a result, the bank said Strategy is "pivoting towards holding Bitcoin as backing for its preferred stock," known as STRC, which the bank characterises as a credit product.
Kendrick noted that STRC has approximately $10 billion notional outstanding and described it as "heavily over-collateralised," arguing that this should support a move for STRC to trade back toward $100 from roughly $90 today.
Communication, the bank added, will be critical. Effective signalling from Strategy about its revised framework for Bitcoin could reassure markets that large-scale selling of Bitcoin is unlikely. Kendrick said that if this signalling succeeds, it should remove the need for Strategy to actually sell any BTC.
Standard Chartered also characterised the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction," reiterating its year-end price view of $100,000.
Contextual note: The company's holdings of 843,775 BTC and the mNAV shift form the factual basis for Standard Chartered's assessment that Strategy's financing and capital structure choices are evolving in response to valuation pressure on its equity relative to its Bitcoin position.