S&P Global Ratings on Friday reaffirmed its sovereign credit ratings for Kenya at 'B' for long-term debt and 'B' for short-term debt in both foreign and local currencies, maintaining a stable outlook. The agency also left the transfer and convertibility assessment unchanged at 'B+'.
The stable outlook reflects a balance between positive and negative forces. On one side, S&P points to expectations for continued solid economic growth and sustained access to concessional external financing. On the other side, the firm highlights pressures from high interest costs, a slowdown in fiscal consolidation, and persistent external imbalances.
S&P said the ongoing Middle East conflict is adding renewed stress to Kenya's external position. The agency noted that the country remains vulnerable to shocks in global energy and food markets. Nevertheless, it observed that Kenya entered the period of conflict with stronger external buffers than in previous crises, supported by record foreign exchange reserves and a relatively stable exchange rate.
On the fiscal outlook, S&P projected a fiscal deficit of 7.1% of GDP for fiscal 2027, wider than the government's target of 5.5%. The rating agency attributed the broader deficit to several factors it expects to persist: ongoing revenue shortfalls, election-related spending pressures, elevated interest costs, and extraordinary expenditures linked to the Middle East conflict.
The firm noted specific fiscal measures that have increased budgetary demands. The government raised its fertilizer subsidy allocation to KES18 billion, up from KES8 billion, citing partly the need to respond to global supply risks. It also reduced the value-added tax rate on petroleum products to 8% from 16% between April and June and later extended that cut through September. S&P estimated the VAT reduction on petroleum to cost roughly KES9 billion, or about $70 million, per quarter.
Turning to external metrics, S&P reported foreign exchange reserves of $15.3 billion by August 2026, up from $6.6 billion in December 2023. The firm attributed the rise in reserves to robust tourism receipts, higher diaspora remittances, nonresident portfolio inflows, and proceeds from privatizations.
For 2026, S&P revised its current account deficit forecast wider by 0.3 percentage points of GDP to 3.0% and trimmed its GDP growth projection by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%. The agency expects that higher costs for energy, fertilizer and other imports, together with trade and logistics disruptions, will increase production costs and reduce household purchasing power.
S&P also referenced developments in Kenya's program financing. The International Monetary Fund did not disburse the ninth and final review under Kenya's extended credit facility/extended fund facility in March 2025, citing insufficient progress on key fiscal and debt targets. Meanwhile, the World Bank approved a $750 million development policy operation in May 2026, which creates the potential to unlock an additional $500 million sustainability-linked loan.
Other external financing for fiscal 2026 cited by S&P includes an African Development Bank policy-based operation with budget support increased to $325 million from $260 million, a second $500 million Samurai bond, Kenya's inaugural sukuk and panda bond issuances, and additional Eurobond sales.
Conclusion
S&P's affirmation of Kenya's 'B/B' ratings with a stable outlook reflects an assessment that, despite growing external pressures from the Middle East conflict and higher import costs, the country currently maintains stronger external buffers. At the same time, fiscal risks including a projected wider-than-target deficit, elevated interest costs, and subsidized outlays pose challenges to fiscal consolidation and could influence future rating assessments.