Stock Markets July 9, 2026 02:18 PM

Oracle weathers S&P downgrade but faces mounting AI-driven capital demands

Shares tick higher even as rating cut spotlights soaring capex, cash shortfalls and heavy customer concentration

By Ajmal Hussain
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Oracle Corp. shares rose 2.7% on Thursday, remaining in positive territory despite a downgrade of its long-term issuer credit rating by S&P Global Ratings to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' with a stable outlook. The rating action centers on elevated financial strain tied to Oracle's expansion into artificial intelligence infrastructure, including sharply higher projected capital expenditures, a widening free operating cash flow deficit and increased leverage. The company is leaning on equity issuance to shore up its balance sheet, while a concentrated customer base - notably a large exposure to OpenAI - amplifies the risk profile.

Oracle weathers S&P downgrade but faces mounting AI-driven capital demands
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Key Points

  • S&P downgraded Oracle's long-term issuer credit rating from 'BBB' to 'BBB-' and kept a stable outlook, leaving the company one notch above speculative grade.
  • S&P projects fiscal 2027 capital expenditures of $90 billion to $95 billion (up from $60 billion prior), a fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow deficit of negative $42 billion (versus a prior $24 billion deficit), and adjusted leverage in the mid-4x range.
  • Oracle has a $638 billion backlog of cloud contracts, is highly exposed to a single large customer (OpenAI makes up roughly half of remaining performance obligations), and has taken equity actions including a $5 billion mandatory convertible preferred issuance in February 2026 with plans for an additional $20 billion equity raise later in the year.

Oracle Corp. shares gained 2.7% on Thursday, trading above where they started the day even after slipping slightly from midday peaks. Investors appeared to weigh the company’s significant pipeline of cloud contracts against the implications of a credit-rating downgrade from S&P Global Ratings.

S&P reduced Oracle’s long-term issuer credit rating to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' and kept a stable outlook. That move places Oracle one notch above so-called speculative grade and highlights growing structural pressures tied to the company’s rapid shift into artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Key financial pressures flagged by S&P

  • Escalating capital expenditures - S&P now expects Oracle’s fiscal 2027 capex to reach $90 billion to $95 billion, up from a previously forecast $60 billion. The agency attributes the jump to higher costs for AI chip components and new data center construction.
  • Widening cash deficit - The ratings agency projects a fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow deficit of negative $42 billion, nearly double the earlier projection of a $24 billion shortfall.
  • Higher leverage - Adjusted debt-to-leverage ratios are projected to move into the mid-4x range in fiscal 2027, which exceeds levels S&P considers appropriate for an unchanged 'BBB' profile.

The downgrade occurs as Oracle touts a massive backlog of cloud business - reported at $638 billion in remaining performance obligations - which some investors prioritized over immediate balance-sheet concerns. Still, S&P emphasized the heightened structural risk associated with Oracle’s capital-intensive pivot toward AI infrastructure.

Customer concentration is another point of vulnerability. S&P noted that OpenAI represents roughly half of Oracle’s remaining performance obligations, leaving the company particularly exposed if that customer or the broader AI industry's trajectory were to falter.

Balance-sheet actions

To preserve its remaining investment-grade status, Oracle has relied on equity measures. In February 2026 the company issued $5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock. Management also plans an additional $20 billion equity issuance later in the calendar year, and expects to raise tens of billions more over the next three years. Oracle's total reported debt stands at $167 billion.

The rating adjustment and the associated forecasts from S&P underscore a tension facing Oracle: sustaining aggressive AI infrastructure builds while managing rising financing needs and concentrated customer exposure. Market reaction on the day reflected some investor confidence in Oracle’s revenue backlog, even as the credit view signals increased financial strain.

Risks

  • Rising capital intensity in AI infrastructure could pressure the technology and cloud infrastructure sectors as Oracle increases spending on chips and data centers.
  • A heavy concentration of remaining performance obligations with OpenAI creates customer-concentration risk that could affect Oracle's cloud and AI-related revenue streams if that relationship changes.
  • Greater projected leverage and widening free cash flow deficits increase financial-market and credit risks for Oracle, with potential implications for the broader corporate credit market and investor appetite for highly leveraged tech investments.

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