Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,933 total articles
The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting but signal that additional tightening could be required later in the year if higher energy prices drive inflation upward. Recent soft readings on wages, prices and activity have reduced immediate pressure to act, but a renewed rise in oil above $90 a bar…
U.S. equity benchmarks were mixed as the Nasdaq slipped on weakness in software names ahead of major tech earnings, while an intensifying Middle East conflict sent oil sharply higher and pushed Brent closer to $100 a barrel. The yen fell to a four-decade low against the dollar amid concerns about Japan’s policy credibility, and global bond yields t…
Argentina's economic activity declined 0.5% in May relative to April, marking a second straight monthly drop under President Javier Milei. On an annual basis the GDP proxy rose 0.2% versus May of the prior year, driven by agriculture and mining. Manufacturing and retail contracted, exports expanded, and indicators such as weak imports and tax recei…
Two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest level in 17 months after oil prices gained on renewed tensions involving Iran. The two-year note climbed 3.68 basis points to 4.298% and briefly hit 4.3105%, a level not seen since February 2025. Market participants have reconnected the geopolitical risk to the potential for higher inflation and a…
The Federal Communications Commission voted to prohibit sales in the United States of devices that include critical hardware from Chinese firms it has designated as national security risks. The measure targets component parts - including logic-bearing semiconductors - from companies such as Huawei, closing a gap that previously allowed some devices…
With seven days until the July 29 policy decision, swap traders are pricing a 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate increase and a 70% chance of no change. Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to remove the Fed's forward guidance has created an unusually uncertain backdrop ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, reviving a level of suspense last …
A U.S. federal judge scheduled a June 1, 2027 trial date for former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracy case. The brief hearing in Manhattan was Maduro's first U.S. court appearance since March and set a pretrial timetable that includes evidence delivery and two rounds of pretrial motions. Maduro…
QatarEnergy is preparing to extend a force majeure covering liquefied natural gas shipments through mid-October, a move that would prolong a supply disruption affecting global gas markets. Buyers in Europe and Asia expect formal notifications in the coming weeks. The expected extension follows rising tensions in the Middle East and recent pushes by…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Pakistan’s finance minister in Washington on July 22 to applaud Islamabad’s progress on macroeconomic stability and fiscal consolidation and to support its bid to re-enter international capital markets. The Treasury statement did not address Pakistan’s request for a $10 billion exchange stabilization facili…
Italy's economy minister signalled cautious optimism that revised Eurostat data in September could lower the country's 2025 deficit estimate, potentially bringing it under the EU's 3% of GDP ceiling and enabling exit from an Excessive Deficit Procedure. The government cites an €8.4 billion hit from unexpected home renovation incentives that may be …
Ireland’s finance ministry says a correction in U.S. artificial intelligence-related equities could shave 1.6% from the country’s economy within a year under a central scenario. A 10% fall in U.S. equity prices is modelled to depress investment, exports and household spending, slow employment growth and materially affect tax receipts tied to the te…
New analysis published by Ireland's finance ministry finds the Irish economy is highly exposed to a correction in U.S. technology equity prices related to the AI sector. A central scenario in the paper models a roughly 10% fall in U.S. equity prices with a gradual recovery and projects declines in investment, exports, and consumption, weaker employ…
U.S. technology officials have accused Chinese AI firm Moonshot of using output from Anthropic’s Fable model to develop its new K3 system and of procuring Nvidia GB300-powered servers that were operated in Thailand. The allegations, accompanied by threats of trade restrictions, have drawn denials from Chinese diplomats and warnings from industry fi…
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in two months as a sharp rise in oil prices, tied to renewed tensions in the Iran conflict, pushed inflation worries back into focus. The 10-year note briefly reached 4.655%, while the 2-year yield moved higher amid expectations the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further this year.
India's banking-sector liquidity surplus fell to 93 billion rupees on Tuesday, the weakest reading in almost a month. The decline was driven by tax outflows and the Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange interventions to shore up the rupee. Market participants point to inflows under the RBI's special deposit programme for non-resident Indians and…
India has confirmed plans to develop small modular reactors (SMRs) at home, aiming to have at least five units operational by 2033. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre is advancing three reactor designs, and the Atomic Energy Commission has chosen Tarapur, Maharashtra, for two of the projects. The move supports New Delhi's broader target to scale nuc…
Bolivia's economy minister said the government is days away from finalizing an IMF financing arrangement worth between $2.5 billion and $2.8 billion, with more than half of the funds expected by early September to shore up the central bank's foreign-exchange reserves. Authorities expect the IMF accord to pave the way for additional multilateral sup…
UK consumer price inflation eased to 2.6% year-on-year in June, down from 2.8% in May and slightly below consensus. Economists say the fall provides the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) extra time to assess policy, but caution that a pickup in energy and food prices could push inflation back above 3% toward the end of 2026.
PulteGroup reported a drop in second-quarter earnings as incentives to offset high mortgage rates and escalating costs reduced profitability. While new orders rose, completed home sales and average selling prices fell, driving lower home sale revenues and a decline in overall quarterly revenue that nonetheless beat street estimates.
The World Bank's chief economist cautioned that an intensification of conflict between the United States and Iran could propel global headline inflation toward 4.5%, drive policy rates higher and depress worldwide growth to as little as 1.3% in 2026. In a late-July interview, he said the bank's downside scenario - with fighting lasting six months o…
Over an 18-month span beginning in January 2025, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation disciplined eight employees after investigations found allegations of sexual harassment credible. Actions included four firings, two suspensions, and two resignations submitted before proposed dismissals. The moves follow a 2023 workplace misconduct scandal a…
President Donald Trump attended a dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base for four U.S. service members who were returned in flag-draped transfer cases after being killed in Iranian attacks in the Middle East. The ceremony underscored the rising human and fiscal costs of the conflict - at least $37.5 billion to U.S. taxpayers and 18 U.S. militar…
Bank Indonesia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, a move that matched the expectations of 13 out of 33 analysts surveyed. The decision follows a cumulative 100 basis points of tightening earlier this year and comes as the rupiah has been trading around 18,000 per dollar. Headline inflation in June stood at 3.3% year-over-year, inside …
Insiders say the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring upside inflation pressures that could force a quicker tightening cycle than markets expect. While the policy rate is likely to remain at 1% at the next meeting, officials warn that persistent pass-through of higher import costs and robust demand in certain sectors could make September and October…
South Africa's annual headline inflation climbed to 5.0% in June from 4.5% in May, above economists' expectations of 4.7%. The transport category - lifted by higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war - was the largest contributor to both monthly and annual CPI increases. Core inflation rose to 4.1%, exceeding forecasts. The data reinforces market e…
