Context and expected decision
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its policy rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday while making clear that the prospect of another hike remains on the table. The central bank raised rates in June and signalled a path that could include further tightening. Since then, a sequence of relatively tame data on consumer prices, wage growth, economic activity and inflation expectations has reduced the immediacy of a follow-up move.
Nonetheless, the ECB faces a renewed external risk: oil prices have climbed back above $90 a barrel amid continued conflict in the Middle East. That rebound in energy costs could rekindle inflationary pressure and force the central bank to act again in the autumn to prevent a broader acceleration of prices.
How markets and economists are positioned
Market pricing currently implies between two and three additional rate increases, with the first fully priced in by October and the second by next April. Several analysts caution that this market outlook is driven more by developments in oil than by the underlying euro zone economic fundamentals.
"We think the ECB will enter a hawkish pause," Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics said, adding that prevailing data would narrowly support more tightening later on, consistent with the June forecast and broadly validating market pricing.
Other economists argue the euro area may require less policy tightening than markets are pricing. Jens Eisenschmidt of Morgan Stanley said: "Even with the current oil price, inflation will be just about at target next year, moderately undershooting later in the year." He added: "If you believe in that forecast, then there is no reason to hike more than twice." Eisenschmidt noted that a 2.5% deposit rate would be only mildly restrictive and that it would be straightforward to justify a cut from that level if inflation is approaching the target.
Why the ECB can be patient for now
A key factor allowing the ECB to pause is the absence so far of significant second-round effects from the earlier rise in energy costs. Second-round effects occur when higher energy and commodity prices feed through into broader prices and wages, generating a wage-price feedback loop that is hard to break.
On current evidence, those dynamics have not emerged strongly. Wage growth has been moderating, the labour market is described as relatively soft in parts of the bloc - notably Germany - and business surveys suggest firms expect subdued pay pressures going forward. Consumer inflation expectations have been easing, and detailed data have shown little sign of widespread second-round pass-through. Services inflation, in particular, slowed last month.
Additionally, ongoing trade tensions, elevated energy costs and an expanding role for China in some of Europe’s export markets are seen by policymakers and analysts as factors that will weigh on industrial activity and labour demand for an extended period.
Remaining risks on the horizon
Despite the more benign near-term data, policymakers warn that the risk of delayed or smaller second-round effects does not eliminate the possibility they will materialise later. The central bank therefore needs to be prepared to respond if inflationary pressures reassert themselves.
Weather-related developments are highlighted as an immediate source of upside risk to prices. Much of Europe has experienced unusually hot conditions this month. Heat stress can damage crops, potentially raising food prices, and low water levels on major rivers could create shipping bottlenecks that push up transport and distribution costs.
Barclays noted these vulnerabilities in a research note: "While food inflation has generally trended lower in recent months, reflecting softer prices for commodities such as sugar, cocoa and coffee, an unusually warm summer in Europe, combined with the effects of El Nino, could renew upward pressure on food prices."
Policy messaging and the balancing act
Given the mixed outlook, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to strike a careful balance in communications. The challenge will be to convey that the Governing Council remains vigilant about inflation risks and that additional tightening remains an option, while avoiding unnecessarily fuelling market expectations for aggressive further moves that are already partly priced in.
The coming weeks will therefore be watched closely for developments in energy markets, crop and river conditions, and incoming macro data that could tilt the balance between continued patience and renewed action.
Summary
The ECB is likely to pause on rates at its upcoming meeting but will keep the option of further hikes open as oil prices rebound above $90 a barrel. Benign readings on wages, prices and activity have eased immediate pressure to act, but weather-related crop risks and a return of energy-driven inflation could force action by the autumn. Markets price in two to three more hikes, though many economists argue the euro zone may need less tightening.