Goldman Sachs now expects Gulf oil exports to return to pre-disruption volumes by late August, revising an earlier timeline that targeted late June. The bank said this delay does not change its Brent crude price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026, which it left at $90 per barrel.
Analysts at the bank explained that the later normalization is offset by a smaller overall supply deficit arising from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman estimates the market faced a 5-6 million barrels per day - mb/d - deficit in the second quarter of 2026, markedly lower than the 14-15 mb/d reduction in Middle East liquids production tied to the event.
According to Goldman, nearly 5 mb/d of the shock was mitigated by demand destruction and just over 4 mb/d was cushioned by pre-war oversupply. Those adjustments, the bank said, helped limit the physical market shortfall compared with the raw hit to production.
Spot Brent futures have dropped roughly 25% from a late March peak despite flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining subdued. Goldman attributed the price decline to the smaller physical market deficit and a pullback in investor positioning after fears of major escalation eased following a ceasefire announcement.
The bank noted that Gulf exports could fully revert to their pre-war level of 23 mb/d even if flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover to only about 70% of pre-disruption volumes. That is possible because oil has been redirected through alternative routes including Yanbu, Fujairah, the Gulf of Oman, and Ceyhan, which together have absorbed substantial volumes.
"We still see the availability of pipeline capacity to destock previously produced oil as the key constraint on reopening," economists led by Daan Struyven said in a note. They added that labor and materials are unlikely to be limiting factors, with drilling activity continuing across the region.
For the medium term, Goldman revised its 2027 outlook downward, cutting its average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 per barrel. The bank raised production expectations for the United Arab Emirates following its exit from OPEC, and also lifted estimates for Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela.
On demand, Goldman expects most of the current weakness to reverse after trade routes reopen, but it assumes that just over 10% of the demand shortfall will persist. The bank cited China’s accelerating shift to alternatives, noting that the electric vehicle share in passenger car sales rose from 50% in February to 62% in May.
Despite projecting a 3.5 mb/d surplus in 2027, Goldman expects prices to remain relatively firm. The bank said OECD commercial stocks are unlikely to climb to high levels after sharp inventory draws in 2026, and a security premium linked to ongoing disruption risk should help put a floor under prices.
Goldman outlined scenario outcomes to illustrate risks. In an adverse scenario where exports normalize only by the end of October, the bank projects Brent averaging just over $110 in the fourth quarter. In a severely adverse case where the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed through year-end, Goldman sees average Brent near $140 in 2027.
By contrast, a benign scenario that assumes exports normalize by the end of July, demand losses prove stickier, and supply comes in stronger than expected would see Brent average around $70 in Q4 and $60 in 2027.
The analysis highlights a mix of logistical constraints and demand dynamics shaping near-term oil markets. Pipeline destocking capacity and the pace at which redirected routes can absorb volumes will be key operational factors, while shifts in Chinese vehicle electrification and broader demand recovery will influence longer-term balances.