Barclays on Friday signaled that its price forecasts for Brent crude carry progressively larger upside the longer the current impasse in the Strait of Hormuz endures. In a set of scenario calculations, the bank said an extension of the present disruption for one month, two months or three months would create upside risks of about $2 per barrel, $7 per barrel and $10 per barrel, respectively, versus its $96/bbl 2026 Brent baseline.
The bank's commentary came as oil briefly rose to $100 a barrel this week - the first time it reached that level since May - amid renewed concerns over supply interruptions tied to near-halt trade through the Strait of Hormuz. By Friday, prices had eased to just below $100.
Barclays emphasized the potential for rapid moves in front-month markets. "As is generally the case, spot price will likely lead the move and could test $150/bbl in the 3-months scenario," the bank said in a note.
The Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of global energy supplies prior to the onset of the conflict referenced in the bank's analysis. That concentration of flows underpins the sensitivity of benchmark prices to trade disruptions through the waterway.
Earlier in the month, Barclays reiterated its Brent price forecasts of $96/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl for 2027. Those central forecasts sit alongside the bank's scenario work assessing how short-term disruptions could alter outcomes for 2026.
Market-wide expectations for 2026 now reflect a deeper projected oil deficit, according to a Reuters poll of analysts cited in the bank's overview. Looking beyond 2026, the same polling results suggest that recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and softer demand from China are expected to push the market toward oversupply in 2027.
Implications
- Short-term spot markets could see outsized volatility if the Strait impasse persists.
- Producers and midstream operators remain exposed to supply-side shocks tied to Gulf transit disruptions.
- Outlook for 2027 depends on the pace of Gulf flow recovery, U.S. output resilience and demand trends from China.