Macquarie said visits to supply-chain participants and policy specialists in Beijing and Shenzhen indicate that state-owned Chinese refiners may be authorised to use commercial oil reserves beginning in the third quarter of 2026. The analysts noted that no commercial reserve releases occurred in the first half of 2026, a period when tighter export controls and reduced refinery utilisation helped rebalance the market.
Under the scenario outlined by Macquarie, state-owned enterprise refiners could tap low-cost stockpiles held by their parent companies, but any such withdrawals would require government sign-off. The firm expects this potential shift to support an earnings rebound for refiners in the second half of 2026, singling out Sinopec as a likely beneficiary.
On shipping, Macquarie's discussions across the supply chain suggest China may broaden access to VLCC capacity as part of a strategy to shore up crude import security. In the medium term, wider access to VLCCs could act as a cap on speculative upside in VLCC freight rates. At the same time, the firm noted that incremental demand for new tanker builds would create opportunities for equipment suppliers such as Neway and Jiuli.
The analysts placed a 60% probability on higher VLCC freight charges ultimately being passed through to end users over time. A key determinant of refining margins and tanker market behaviour will be whether the National Development and Reform Commission elects to fold higher freight costs into the regulated gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism.
Macquarie also addressed the outlook for energy storage. The firm judged market concerns that ESS demand is approaching a peak to be overstated. It argued that the nationwide rollout of spot-market trading and increasingly negative on-grid tariffs will widen peak-to-trough price differentials, thereby improving the economics for energy storage deployments.
As an illustration, Macquarie pointed to tariff reform in Liaoning, where adjustments have pushed down power tariffs in the 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. window. Such moves, the firm said, support stronger arbitrage opportunities for ESS and should underpin demand through the remainder of the 15th Five-Year Plan, especially if market reforms and tighter dual-carbon policies continue.
However, Macquarie warned that more negative generation tariffs could pressure earnings at nuclear operators. The firm cited nuclear groups including CGN and CNNP as those that could face margin headwinds from tariff reform.
Finally, Macquarie observed that management changes are accelerating reform across China's state-owned oil companies. The analysts highlighted the agenda of Sinopec's chairman, Hou Qijun, as helping the company to navigate short-term market and policy volatility, and identified Sinopec as its preferred exposure to state-owned enterprise reform.
Bottom line: Macquarie's on-the-ground discussions point to potential policy-enabled access to commercial oil stocks from Q3 2026, plans to increase VLCC capacity to secure crude imports, and a constructive view on ESS demand supported by market reform; outcomes will depend on government approvals and pricing policy decisions.