Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,088 total articles
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, moving expected cuts from later this year to December 2026 and March 2027. The firm says elevated energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East war will keep core inflation nearer 3% year-over-year, and that only a combination of fading oil s…
Hopes that the Iran-U.S. confrontation would de-escalate faded after U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's weekend peace proposal "totally unacceptable." Markets reacted with higher oil and a stronger dollar, while equities were led by gains in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, notably in South Korea. Economic and corporate…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, who leaves office at the end of May, advised colleagues to exercise prudence when considering an anticipated interest rate hike at the June meeting, citing a weakening growth outlook and the need for more clarity on the conflict in Iran. Markets expect a rate increase on June 10-11 and possibly …
As the Australian government prepares to deliver its upcoming budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is navigating a complex economic landscape defined by high commodity prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a central bank focused on curbing inflation. While revenue windfalls from elevated commodity prices are expected to reduce the project…
In a recent interview with Japan's Nikkei, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), emphasized the necessity for nations to adopt disciplined fiscal policies. He warned that if government spending shifts from being targeted and temporary to becoming broad-based and persistent, it could significant…
The U.S. dollar climbed against a basket of major currencies during early Asian trading on Monday, fueled by a combination of robust domestic employment statistics and escalating geopolitical friction in the Middle East. Following President Donald Trump's dismissal of an Iranian peace offer, investors sought refuge in the greenback, while oil marke…
The Australian Labor government is preparing to introduce significant reforms to capital gains tax discounts and negative gearing provisions in the upcoming federal budget. According to reports from the Australian Financial Review, these adjustments are designed to tackle intergenerational inequality by altering how investment properties are taxed.…
Japanese authorities are implementing a multi-pronged strategy to combat the yen's continued decline, relying on a coordinated approach between the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the United States. By aligning the central bank's hawkish policy direction with potential diplomatic support from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent,…
U.S. headline consumer inflation moved higher in March 2026, propelled by a surge in retail gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. The pickup in energy costs pushed the year-over-year CPI to 3.3% and intensified a K-shaped pattern in household sentiment and spending. Lower-income consumers are bearing a larger share of the burden, even as some …
A Morgan Stanley survey of roughly 2,000 Americans finds 44% view artificial intelligence favorably while 28% hold negative views and 25% are neutral. Attitudes vary markedly by age, income, gender, political affiliation and how often respondents use AI, with weekly users the most positive and older Americans the most skeptical.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs issued a public warning to France and Britain that their warships would face "a decisive and immediate response" if they entered the Strait of Hormuz in company with U.S. forces. The statement followed Paris’ announcement that the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle had been sent to …
Pakistan has engaged in discussions with Iranian officials to secure permission for a limited number of Qatari liquefied natural gas shipments to transit the Strait of Hormuz, using a northern route close to the Iranian coast. The move responds to immediate domestic demand after Islamabad declined higher-priced spot purchases and follows recent voy…
HSBC Global Investment Research mapped how artificial intelligence could reshape corporate revenues across markets. Under a moderate disruption scenario Taiwan and South Korea register the largest net AI-enabled revenue shares, while India shows the highest net disruption. In a larger disruption outcome, several European markets turn negative drive…
U.S. equities, buoyed by a robust corporate earnings season and easing concerns over the Iran conflict, head into a week dominated by April inflation readings, consumer spending data and a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders that could touch on rare earths and technology access. Market participants will watch the consumer price index, producer…
An approach focused on companies that deliver sustained returns on equity, strong cash generation and mid-teens earnings growth has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the past decade. Rob Brewis of Aubrey Capital Management finds that only a small share of the thousands of firms in the emerging markets universe meet a roughly 15% ROE…
Bank of America strategists argue the U.S. dollar’s failure to rally reflects market reluctance to price additional Fed hikes. With April payrolls due and BofA forecasting 80,000 jobs, the bank says a strong print would widen the distribution of possible Fed moves and likely lift the dollar. However, perceived restraint under incoming Fed Chair War…
A federal trade court has ruled that the 10% universal tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is unlawful, voiding the duties that took effect as a 150-day stopgap on February 24. The decision, issued by the U.S. Court of International Trade in a 2-1 ruling, concluded the administration did not satisfy the statute's requirement f…
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, to be staged across the United States, Canada and Mexico, is forecast to be the largest sporting event in history and a significant economic catalyst. Bank of America Global Research estimates the tournament will contribute roughly $41 billion to global GDP and support more than 800,000 jobs. With 48 teams competing in 104 …
Germany's draft budget for 2027 sets net funding needs at €196.5 billion, or roughly 4.3% of GDP, marking an increase versus 2026 and prior medium-term forecasts. Analysis from BofA Global Research attributes about half of the rise to a faster ramp-up in defense spending and the remainder to cyclical weakness. Berlin faces an estimated €20 billion …
A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Kharaitiyat, has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is now in the Gulf of Oman. Loaded at Ras Laffan earlier this month and listed as bound for Pakistan, the transit is the first from Qatar through the waterway since the outbreak of the Iran war. The voyage followed a northern route close to the Ir…
Ship-tracking records show the liquefied natural gas tanker Merkuriy, which recently adopted a Russian flag, berthed alongside the Saam floating storage unit near Murmansk and appears to be taking on cargo from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. Observers say the move illustrates a widening effort to assemble an opaque 'shadow fleet' capable of c…
U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing next week for a high-level summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Set to take place from May 14 to May 15, this meeting represents the first time a U.S. leader has visited the Chinese capital in nearly ten years. The primary objective of the summit is to stabilize bilateral relations,…
In a move that significantly alters Australia's political landscape, the One Nation party has achieved its inaugural victory in the lower house. During the Farrer by-election held on Saturday, candidate David Farley secured a decisive mandate, capturing nearly 60% of the total vote. This landmark result marks the first time the far-right party has …
Recent Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screening figures suggest a period of volatility for the U.S. aviation sector. While there was a marginal improvement in passenger numbers last week, year-over-year growth remains in negative territory across all major domestic carriers when measured by available seat mile (ASM)-weighted screening…
In a recent address at a political conference in Toronto, Prime Minister Mark Carney outlined a potential shift in Canada's trade posture, suggesting the nation is open to deepening economic ties with the United States and Mexico. This movement toward more integrated regional structures is being considered alongside the upcoming mandatory six-year …
