Consumer price pressures in the United States reversed course in early 2026 after easing through much of the prior year, with energy costs the principal driver of the renewed inflationary impulse. In March 2026 the headline consumer price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, up from readings near 2.4% in January and February, according to Bernstein research citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The uptick followed a sharp rebound in retail gasoline prices after the Iran conflict pushed pump costs higher.
Gasoline, which exerted a deflationary influence across most of 2025, swung to a material contributor to headline inflation in early 2026. Bernstein highlights that the broader CPI trend had moderated late last year before the energy-led reversal, consistent with the underlying BLS series it references.
Distributional effects and consumer sentiment
The recent inflation surge is not being felt uniformly. University of Michigan data cited by Bernstein show the gap in consumer sentiment between households in the top-third and bottom-third of the income distribution widened sequentially in the first quarter of 2026 after narrowing in the prior quarter. Higher-income households received a temporary lift from tax refunds, which the report says helped sentiment among those consumers rebound, while lower-income households did not see the same relief.
Higher energy and food costs are a core element of this divergence. Cumulative inflation across categories since January 2019 stands at 31%, with energy up roughly 70% cumulatively and food up about 35%, per the BLS data referenced by Bernstein. Within food, prices for meals eaten away from home ran at 3.8% year-over-year in March 2026, still outpacing food-at-home inflation at 1.9%, though the gap has narrowed since 2025.
Program participation, value-seeking behavior and retail
Program-level and retail indicators in the report reinforce the uneven effects of price moves. SNAP payments have declined year-over-year since October 2025, when the USDA began its new fiscal year, the report notes. That decline reflects tightened employment requirements for those aged 55 to 65, which reduced eligible participants by 10% year-over-year as of early 2026, according to USDA data cited by Bernstein.
At the same time, total retail sales across channels grew year-over-year as of March 2026, with notable strength in apparel and general merchandise. Clothing and accessories stores posted 7.2% growth and general merchandise sales rose 2.5% year-over-year, per BLS figures cited in the report. Non-store retailers, including e-commerce merchants, have continued to take share from brick-and-mortar channels since 2021, a longer-running shift the report highlights.
Value-oriented shopping behavior is evident in food markets as well: private-label food volumes retained positive growth and commanded roughly a 27.8% market share as of March 2026, per NielsenIQ data referenced by Bernstein, reflecting sustained value-seeking particularly among lower-income consumers.
Housing market dynamics and credit
Housing activity remains constrained. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stayed above 6.2% on a year-to-date basis in 2026 according to Freddie Mac data referenced by Bernstein. A large portion of existing borrowers remain insulated from current rates - about 80% of outstanding mortgage holders are locked in at rates below 6% and roughly 49% are locked in under 4% - which has suppressed turnover in the housing stock.
Pending and existing home sales were subdued over the prior 12 months, per National Association of Realtors data cited in the report. Bernstein’s proprietary model projects home improvement spending growth of between 0% and 1% over the next six to nine months, suggesting limited near-term upside in renovation-related activity.
On household balance sheets, real disposable personal income per capita was trending upward at approximately $52,500 as of February 2026, per Bureau of Economic Analysis figures cited by Bernstein, providing a partial offset to price pressures. Consumer credit outstanding continued to rise as well, though the year-over-year growth in credit lagged inflation according to Federal Reserve data referenced in the report.
Expectations and outlook signals
Measures of sentiment and inflation expectations point to ongoing concern. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index continued a year-over-year decline in the first quarter of 2026, extending a multi-year downtrend the report documents. One-year inflation expectations climbed toward 7% by late 2025 into early 2026, per the University of Michigan data the report cites, while the share of consumers expecting rising unemployment remained elevated.
Bernstein’s assessment, based on the compilation of these series, underscores a bifurcated recovery where energy-driven inflationary pressure and policy and program changes have produced uneven outcomes across income groups and sectors of the economy.