Economy May 11, 2026 12:34 AM

Diplomatic Breakthrough Eludes Markets as AI Stocks Propel Gains

Oil and the dollar rise after Iran-U.S. standoff; chipmakers and AI lift equities despite geopolitical uncertainty

By Nina Shah

Hopes that the Iran-U.S. confrontation would de-escalate faded after U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's weekend peace proposal "totally unacceptable." Markets reacted with higher oil and a stronger dollar, while equities were led by gains in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, notably in South Korea. Economic and corporate calendars for the week include Chinese producer price data, U.S. home sales, a visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Japan, and several major corporate earnings reports.

Diplomatic Breakthrough Eludes Markets as AI Stocks Propel Gains

Key Points

  • Diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled after President Trump called Iran's peace proposal "totally unacceptable," leaving prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz uncertain - impacts energy and currency markets.
  • Oil rose more than 4% in the Asia session and the dollar strengthened while equities were driven by gains in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, notably in South Korea where shares rallied nearly 5% to record highs.
  • Macro and corporate catalysts for the week include Chinese producer prices hitting a 45-month high in April, a visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Japan amid recent yen interventions, and key corporate earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials, SoftBank and Nippon Yusen.

Global markets opened the week with a mix of geopolitical anxiety and sector-specific optimism after diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran stalled over the weekend. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's plan to end hostilities as "totally unacceptable," underlining the sizeable gap between the two sides and clouding prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran had circulated a proposal on Sunday aimed at ending the war on all fronts. The document included a demand for compensation for war damages and asserted Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, the U.S. approach had been to seek an end to fighting before entering negotiations on more contentious issues such as Iran's nuclear programme. The divergence in these positions left the pathway to talks unclear.

Markets registered immediate reactions. Oil prices climbed by more than 4% during the Asia session, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. S&P 500 futures slipped on the headlines and European futures were broadly flat, but it was activity in the artificial intelligence sector that largely underpinned equity market momentum.

South Korean stocks led regional advances, surging nearly 5% to fresh record highs. The gains were concentrated in chipmakers, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the forefront. The article noted that SK Hynix's share price has almost tripled since the start of the year.

Political developments in the United Kingdom are also in focus. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to deliver a speech on Monday in which he will set rebuilding relations with the rest of Europe as his government's defining mission. The speech is intended as a political counterattack to growing calls for him to step down.

On the data front, China released producer price figures showing a stronger-than-expected rise in April, with producer prices reaching a 45-month high. The uptick adds pressure on manufacturers already coping with weak domestic demand.

Other policy and diplomatic movements to watch include a visit to Japan by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with markets keeping an eye on the yen after Japanese interventions in recent weeks. Separately, U.S. officials previewed a two-day visit to China by President Trump during which he and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to discuss Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons, and consider extending a critical minerals agreement.

Corporate calendars are busy this week. U.S. company results due include networking equipment maker Cisco and semiconductor equipment firm Applied Materials. Heavyweights Nvidia and Walmart are scheduled to report later in the month. In Japan, after-market results on Monday are expected from SoftBank and shipper Nippon Yusen. U.S. home sales data is also due later on Monday.


Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

  • Earnings: SoftBank, Nippon Yusen, Fox Corp.
  • Economics: U.S. home sales.

Risks

  • Escalation of the Iran-U.S. standoff could pressure energy markets and currencies, particularly oil and the dollar - affecting energy and macro-sensitive sectors.
  • Weaker demand dynamics despite rising Chinese producer prices could complicate the outlook for manufacturers and exporters - affecting industrials and export-oriented technology firms.
  • Political uncertainty in the U.K. around Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership could influence investor sentiment in European markets and sectors exposed to UK policy shifts.

More from Economy

USDA Bans Ten Lenders from Rural Development Program Over Compliance Issues May 12, 2026 Trump Says He Will Discuss Iran with Xi in China Visit, But Says He Doesn’t Need Beijing’s Help May 12, 2026 U.S. Posts Reduced $215 Billion April Surplus as Refunds and Outlays Rise May 12, 2026 Bundesbank's Nagel Says Iran Conflict Could Force ECB to Raise Rates May 12, 2026 EIA Sees U.S. Electricity Use Climbing to New Highs Through 2027 May 12, 2026