Currencies May 18, 2026 08:26 AM

Pound Edges Up but Stays Near April Low as UK Political Turmoil and Energy-Driven Inflation Loom

Sterling gains modestly amid market anxiety over rising energy costs and leadership pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer

By Caleb Monroe

The pound made a small advance on Monday but remained close to its weakest level since early April. Markets continue to wrestle with the combined influence of inflationary pressures from higher energy prices and heightened political uncertainty in Britain after poor local election results, which have pushed UK gilt yields to multi-year highs.

Pound Edges Up but Stays Near April Low as UK Political Turmoil and Energy-Driven Inflation Loom

Key Points

  • Sterling rose 0.4% on Monday to $1.337 after earlier slipping to $1.3304, its weakest since April 8.
  • Poor local election results on May 7 led to calls from nearly a quarter of Labour lawmakers for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, and two rivals have entered the contest to replace him.
  • Rising investor concern about a successor expanding government borrowing has pushed UK gilt yields to multi-year highs, increasing borrowing costs and weighing on the currency.

The pound climbed modestly on Monday yet remained near its lowest point since early April, as investors weighed concerns about rising inflation linked to higher energy prices alongside political instability in Britain.

Pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer intensified after disappointing local election outcomes earlier in May, a political disruption that has coincided with a sharp rise in gilt yields and added downward pressure on sterling.

The Labour Party suffered significant losses on May 7, prompting nearly a quarter of Labour lawmakers to call for Starmer to step down. The emergence of two declared rivals vying to replace him has unsettled markets and contributed to an increase in the government’s borrowing costs.

"I am focused on the job that I was asked to do, which is to serve my country and to carry out my duties as prime minister of this country," Starmer said during a visit to the Labour Party’s headquarters.

On the foreign exchange market, sterling was last reported up 0.4% on the day at $1.337, after earlier dropping as much as 0.15% to $1.3304 - its lowest level since April 8. The modest intraday gain left the currency still close to the recent trough established in early April.

Underlying the currency moves, UK gilt yields surged to multi-year highs last week as investors expressed concern that a potential left-leaning successor to Starmer might seek to expand government borrowing in order to stimulate growth. That scenario, market participants say, would place additional strain on Britain’s already fragile public finances.

Taken together, the interplay of energy-driven inflation risks and political uncertainty has created a fragile backdrop for sterling and for UK government bond markets. Traders and investors remain attentive to further domestic political developments and to any shifts in energy price dynamics that could influence inflation expectations.


Market context: The movement in sterling reflects a combination of macroeconomic and political drivers rather than a single identifiable catalyst - with both higher energy prices and leadership instability cited as contributing factors.

Risks

  • Political uncertainty in Britain - pressure on the prime minister and an internal leadership contest could further unsettle markets and raise government borrowing costs, affecting the fiscal sector and bond markets.
  • Inflationary pressure from higher energy prices - rising energy costs may drive inflation higher, impacting monetary conditions and consumer-facing sectors sensitive to inflation.
  • Higher gilt yields - an increase in government bond yields raises borrowing costs for the public sector and can strain financial market stability.

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