Jefferies has opened coverage of Mobileye Global Inc. with an "underperform" recommendation and a $8 price target, which equates to about a 24% decline from the stock's prior close at $10.53. The brokerage's valuation rests on a sum-of-the-parts framework that applies a blended 2027 enterprise value-to-sales multiple of 1.9 times across Mobileye's product segments to reach an equity value of $6.51 billion, or $8 per share, based on 816 million shares outstanding.
The valuation incorporates net cash and results in an implied price-to-earnings ratio at the target price of 21.2 times. Jefferies also notes net cash of approximately $1.59 billion was included in its model.
Financial forecasts and margins
Jefferies projects Mobileye's revenue at $1.98 billion for 2026, which represents growth of 2.8% from the most recently reported period. Revenues are modeled to rise to $2.24 billion in 2027 and $2.86 billion in 2028, corresponding to growth rates of 15.2% and 29.2% in those years.
Adjusted EBIT margins are forecast at 10.4% in 2026, 13.7% in 2027, and 19.2% in 2028. For fiscal 2025 actuals, Mobileye reported revenue of $1.89 billion and adjusted EBIT of $280 million, a 14.8% margin.
On adjusted EBIT, Jefferies' 2028 forecast sits about 10% below consensus, at $550 million versus $609 million. The firm also lays out adjusted earnings per share estimates of $0.27 for 2026, $0.38 for 2027, and $0.63 for 2028.
Cash, acquisitions and buybacks
Jefferies reports Mobileye had net cash of $1.84 billion at the end of 2025. Its projections show net cash declining to $1.59 billion in 2027 and then rising to $2.16 billion in 2028, after taking into account a $591 million acquisition-related outflow in 2026 tied to Mobileye's purchase of humanoid robotics company Mentee Robotics for $900 million. That transaction, per the note, involves $612 million in cash and the remainder in shares. The model also assumes a $250 million share buyback in 2026.
Key structural concerns
Jefferies frames its negative view around three primary structural threats that could weigh on Mobileye's equity performance.
- Customer concentration and product mix risk - Jefferies warns that mix-driven growth from higher-autonomy offerings is already embedded in consensus forecasts and is heavily dependent on a small number of customers, most notably the Volkswagen Group. Volkswagen has publicly expressed an ambition to internalize autonomy capabilities, which could reduce the addressable opportunity for Mobileye's higher-priced products such as Surround ADAS and SuperVision.
- Robotaxi economics are unproven - While the Volkswagen/MOIA robotaxi program serves as a near-term catalyst in some scenarios, Jefferies highlights uncertain economics. Its base case assumes a fleet of 1,000 active vehicles in 2027 ramping to 13,000 by 2029, producing $84 million and $530 million in robotaxi revenue for those years respectively. The note flags Mobileye's commercial terms - a $40,000 upfront fee and a $0.20 per mile charge - as untested at scale.
- Competitive technology risk - The brokerage points to rivals pursuing end-to-end artificial intelligence architectures, citing Wayve as an example, which could pose a threat to Mobileye's map-dependent, modular system design.
Market position and recent performance
Mobileye is roughly 75% owned by Intel and, according to the note, controls about 70% of the global advanced driver assistance systems market. Despite that position, the stock has fallen roughly 75% over the past three years. Jefferies notes the company's enterprise value-to-EBIT multiple has compressed from levels typical of growth technology firms toward multiples more in line with Tier 1 automotive suppliers.
Scenario analysis and valuation ranges
Jefferies provides a 12-month upside case of $14.80, which assumes sales 15% above its base projections, a 15% EBIT margin in 2027, and a 3.5 times EV/sales multiple. The downside case of $5.80 assumes sales 15% below the base case, a 10% EBIT margin, and a 1.5 times EV/sales multiple.
The brokerage summarizes its stance by noting that the balance of risks is skewed to the downside due to structural threats and dependence on a small group of key customers, and that the stock's re-rating ultimately hinges on several highly uncertain outcomes.
Note: All figures and assumptions above are drawn from the Jefferies initiation and its published forecasts.