Overview
U.S. President Donald Trump stated on July 13 that Washington intends to "take out Pickaxe Mountain," naming a fortified, subterranean site linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. The comment came amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, as exchanges of fire in the Gulf have complicated efforts to end the conflict. The following report compiles what is known about Pickaxe Mountain, including its location, construction history, apparent capabilities and the challenges any attack would face.
Where it sits
Pickaxe Mountain sits approximately 220 km (140 miles) south of Tehran and roughly 2 km (1.2 miles) from the Natanz nuclear complex. Natanz is the location where two uranium enrichment plants were based. During the war initiated by the United States and Israel on February 28 and again during last year’s 12-day conflict, the Natanz site was bombed. According to the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the above-ground enrichment hall at Natanz was destroyed, and the underground enrichment plant was likely at least badly damaged.
The peak of Pickaxe Mountain rises to about 1,600 metres above sea level. The tunnel facility, which has been under construction, was not struck in those earlier campaigns, according to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a U.S.-based think-tank that monitors nuclear non-proliferation.
Origins and construction
Construction of the Pickaxe Mountain facility began in 2020. Iranian authorities said the work followed an incident at Natanz that Iranian officials described as an explosion caused by sabotage. At that time Tehran stated the Natanz sabotage had inflicted significant damage that could slow development of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges.
In September 2020, Iran’s then-nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, said Iran had begun building "a more modern, larger and more comprehensive hall in all dimensions in the heart of the mountain near Natanz" intended for producing advanced centrifuges. Rafael Grossi, director general of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, told PBS Frontline in March that Iran had previously announced plans to move its most sensitive activities underground, describing Pickaxe Mountain as part of that systematic intent to place sensitive facilities beneath the surface.
Physical layout and defenses
ISIS, based on satellite imagery analysis, reports the Pickaxe Mountain complex has two pairs of tunnel entrances, which are believed to serve one principal facility located at least 100 metres below the mountain. The site’s physical defenses include an extensive security perimeter and the hardening of the tunnel portals.
Since the wars, ISIS observes that the pair of eastern tunnel portals have been partially backfilled to impede vehicle access, although they have not been fully sealed. The hardening and partial backfilling are defensive measures intended to complicate any hostile attempt to reach or damage subterranean chambers.
Operational status and potential uses
President Trump said on July 13 that U.S. intelligence was watching the site closely and suggested a strike could come soon. He told the Hugh Hewitt Show: "We see no activity there. They’re not doing well with their nuclear situation. Every time we hear about it, we blow it up. So they don’t like talking about it. But we’ll probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon."
ISIS cautions that imagery alone does not indicate the facility is functioning. In a July 14 report, the think-tank concluded its assessment "is that the facility is not yet operational, but construction continues," and that it is unclear when, if ever, the facility could become operational based solely on satellite observations.
ISIS further noted uncertainty about whether Iran still intends to install a large-scale centrifuge assembly plant in Pickaxe Mountain given the prior destruction of Iran’s centrifuge programme and its capacity to produce centrifuge components. The report stated that if Iran rebuilds its centrifuge manufacturing capability, it could opt to install a smaller centrifuge assembly facility inside Pickaxe Mountain capable of supporting a nuclear weapons programme.
Technical challenges to striking Pickaxe Mountain
Analysts describe the facility as deeply buried, and therefore technologically challenging to neutralize from the air. ISIS has judged the site would be more appropriate for ground forces to attack or sabotage. The group added that vulnerabilities might exist that could be exploited by deep earth-penetrating weapons delivered by aerial platforms.
Sam Lair, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who reviewed recent satellite imagery of the site, told Reuters that reinforcing tunnel entrances raises the difficulty of striking the complex with penetrating munitions such as bunker-buster bombs. He said bolstering the portals would complicate "targeting with penetrating munitions like bunker busters." Lair also suggested that Iran appears to be taking steps to strengthen defenses at Pickaxe Mountain because it values activities it wishes to continue there while remaining concerned about possible attacks.
What remains uncertain
Several key questions remain unresolved by imagery and public statements. Satellite photos cannot reveal internal outfitting or the presence of specialized equipment, nor can they definitively confirm the facility’s intended end use. ISIS emphasizes that construction is ongoing but cannot specify when or whether full operations would commence. It is likewise not possible from imagery alone to determine whether Iran will proceed with installing large-scale assembly infrastructure after the setbacks to its centrifuge programme.
Given those limitations, assessments about whether Pickaxe Mountain could directly support a weapons programme, or how quickly it might be made operational, remain contingent on intelligence not publicly available and on Iran’s future decisions about rebuilding centrifuge production capabilities.
Conclusion
Pickaxe Mountain is a hardened, under-construction complex close to Natanz that carries strategic significance because of its proximity to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and its subterranean design. U.S. leadership has publicly threatened to strike it, but analysts and imagery-based assessments indicate the facility is not yet functioning and is heavily fortified. The depth and construction of the tunnel entrances complicate any prospective strike, leaving open debate over the feasibility and method of a successful attack.
Key quotes
- President Donald Trump on July 13: "We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready."
- Rafael Grossi, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief: Iran had announced the intention to place its most sensitive facilities underground.
- Sam Lair, Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow: Reinforcing tunnel entrances would complicate "targeting with penetrating munitions like bunker busters."