Economy July 15, 2026 01:30 PM

Peru’s May Growth Tumbles to 1.8%, Weakest Monthly Expansion in 2026

Output falls short of analyst estimates as fishing and manufacturing register steep year-on-year declines amid El Niño-related shifts

By Avery Klein
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Peru's economy expanded 1.8% in May from a year earlier, the slowest monthly growth recorded so far in 2026. The national statistics agency INEI released the data showing a marked slowdown from April's 3.73% expansion and below the 3.2% forecast from analysts. Sharp contractions in the fishing and manufacturing sectors were prominent contributors to the weakness, with climate-related changes cited as a factor affecting aquatic catches and textile production cycles.

Peru’s May Growth Tumbles to 1.8%, Weakest Monthly Expansion in 2026
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Key Points

  • Peru's year-on-year growth for May slowed to 1.8%, the weakest monthly expansion in 2026.
  • Fishing contracted 73.1% and manufacturing shrank 10.7%, major contributors to the slowdown.
  • INEI identified warm surface water from El Niño as a factor reducing anchoveta catches and affecting textile production cycles.

Overview

Peru's economy grew 1.8% in May compared with the same month a year earlier, according to figures published by the INEI statistics agency on Wednesday. That pace is the slowest recorded in 2026 and falls well below the 3.2% growth anticipated by analysts. The May reading also represents a decline from April's 3.73% year-on-year expansion.

Sector performance

The INEI data highlight pronounced weakness in specific sectors. The fishing sector contracted by 73.1% year-on-year in May, a steep reduction in output. Manufacturing also posted a double-digit decline, shrinking 10.7% compared with May of the prior year.

Drivers cited

INEI linked the dramatic fall in fishing output to reduced catches of marine species, especially anchoveta. The agency said warm surface water associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon pushed these fish into deeper waters, which reduced harvest volumes and in turn depressed sector activity.

INEI also noted broader climate-related impacts on production. In its report the agency said, "Climate-related changes have affected the availability of aquatic species and the production cycle of the textile industry." That statement ties the environmental shifts to both fishing volumes and textile sector production dynamics.

Implications

The May readings underscore an economy experiencing uneven sectoral performance, with pronounced declines concentrated in fishing and manufacturing. The result was an aggregate growth rate that missed market expectations and signaled a softer near-term momentum than the April figures suggested.


Key points

  • Peru's GDP grew 1.8% year-on-year in May, the slowest monthly expansion in 2026.
  • Fishing output plunged 73.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing fell 10.7%.
  • INEI attributed part of the weakness to El Niño-linked warm surface water affecting anchoveta catches and textile production cycles.

Risks and uncertainties

  • Ongoing climate-related variability - particularly El Niño effects - may continue to disrupt fishing volumes and related industries.
  • Persistent weakness in manufacturing output introduces uncertainty for industrial demand and sectors linked to factory activity, such as textiles.

Risks

  • Climate-driven shifts tied to El Niño may keep fishing volumes depressed, impacting fisheries and related supply chains.
  • Continued manufacturing declines create uncertainty for industrial sectors, including textile producers.

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