France could see a pronounced weakening of its public finances over the remainder of the decade unless authorities move quickly to rein in spending, an independent report commissioned by the government said on Wednesday.
Prepared by economists Xavier Jaravel, Xavier Ragot, Jean-Luc Tavernier and Natacha Valla, the study projects the budget deficit widening from 5.0% of gross domestic product in 2026 to nearly 7% by 2030 if no corrective action is taken. Public debt is forecast to climb from 118% of GDP in 2026 to more than 130% by the end of the decade.
The report, commissioned in May by Finance Minister Roland Lescure, is designed to inform what is expected to be a heated parliamentary debate once lawmakers begin examining the 2027 budget from October - a timetable that precedes next year’s presidential election, which polls suggest far right veteran Marine Le Pen could win.
Authors warn the combination of rising borrowing costs and continued budget deficits would push debt-servicing bills substantially higher. The study estimates annual interest payments would increase to €124 billion by 2030 from €78 billion this year, as bonds issued during years of ultra-low interest rates are refinanced at higher rates.
To halt the upward trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five-year presidential term, the economists calculate France would need cumulative budget tightening amounting to €126 billion by 2032.
The report cautions that postponing fiscal adjustments until after the 2027 election would force larger corrections later and could erode investor confidence in French sovereign debt markets. Rather than recommending broad across-the-board spending cuts, the authors advocate targeted structural reforms and specifically urge policymakers to revisit the automatic inflation indexation applied to some welfare benefits and pensions.
Biographical notes supplied in the report identify Jaravel as head of the national economics council, Ragot as president of the OFCE think tank, Tavernier as a former head of the INSEE statistics agency and Valla as dean of the management school at Paris’ Sciences Po university.
The report’s figures and recommendations arrive amid rising concern about the nation’s €3.5 trillion public debt stock outpacing economic growth if borrowing costs continue to climb. The study includes a currency reference of $1 = 0.8747 euros.
Summary - A government-commissioned team of economists finds France’s fiscal position set to deteriorate through 2030 unless targeted reforms and fiscal tightening are implemented. Deficits and public debt are projected to rise materially, with interest costs increasing sharply as higher refinancing rates take effect.