Lead
Berenberg has opened coverage of Meridian Mining plc with a "buy" recommendation, assigning a price target of 168 British pence per share for the firm's Main Market listing in London and a C$3 per-share target for its Toronto quotation. The brokerage projects an 89% upside from current levels based on its valuation of the company and the planned Cabaçal operation in Brazil.
Project overview and timetable
Meridian is developing the Cabaçal gold-copper-silver mine, targeting first production in the fourth quarter of 2028. The deposit has a mining history, having been worked as an underground operation in the 1980s and 1990s. Meridian's plan is to extract the deposit as a shallow open pit, and the permitting process is described as well progressed.
Processing capacity and production profile
Berenberg models a staged operation with an initial throughput of 2.5 million tonnes per annum, ramping to 4.5 million tonnes per annum from year four. For the first five years of steady-state operation, the broker expects average annual production of approximately 18,000 tonnes of copper, roughly 92,000 ounces of gold and about 153,000 ounces of silver.
Over an initial 11-year life of mine, average annual volumes are modeled at about 16,000 tonnes of copper, 69,000 ounces of gold and 124,000 ounces of silver.
Economics and valuation
Berenberg's base model includes initial capital expenditure of $273 million and produces a life-of-mine EBITDA margin of approximately 67%. The brokerage calculates a net present value of $1 billion, an internal rate of return of 95% and a payback period of around one year under its assumptions.
Exploration and upside
"Exploration adds even more upside," Berenberg said, pointing to a recent resource upgrade at Cabaçal that it believes could support a life-of-mine extension of at least four years. The broker also highlights exploration potential across the broader Cabaçal belt and in the adjacent Jaurú and Araputanga belts.
In its valuation the brokerage included $66 million of risked upside attributed to a potential life-of-mine extension and a further $50 million assigned to broader exploration potential, describing these inclusions as conservative.
Investment thesis and catalysts
Berenberg states that it subscribes to the Lassonde Curve thesis, which posits that a project's value rises as it advances toward first production. The brokerage identifies a sequence of near-term catalysts it expects over the next 24 months to drive value and de-risk the project. These include a definitive feasibility study scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, early civil and infrastructure works in the third quarter of 2026, a final investment decision and funding in the first quarter of 2027, further permitting in the first quarter of 2027, construction commencing in the second quarter of 2027, and first production anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2028.
Berenberg projects that these milestones, coupled with the project's underlying quality, should move the stock toward trading at 1x net asset value from its current valuation of 0.53x.
Key risks
The brokerage lists several risks to its base case. These include execution risk around project delivery, the fact the project is not yet fully funded, commodity price volatility that could affect the economics, and potential changes to Brazilian corporate tax or royalty rates. Each of these factors could materially alter the project's outcomes or the valuation derived by the brokerage.
Conclusion
Berenberg's initiation of Meridian Mining at "buy" is anchored in a relatively robust set of modeled near-term production figures, attractive margin and payback characteristics, and the presence of exploration upside that is partially reflected in a conservative valuation. The broker's timetable sets out a clear sequence of studies, works, permitting and financing steps leading to construction and first production in 2028, while acknowledging funding and delivery risks that remain.