A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll published today indicates a much tighter runoff contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's October vote. In the head-to-head projection, Lula is shown with 46% support while Bolsonaro registers 45%.
The latest figures mark a decline in Lula's advantage versus the same survey's late July reading, when the leftist leader led by 4 points with 47% against Bolsonaro's 43%. The shifts between the two sets of results fall within the poll's margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Not all recent surveys show an equivalently narrow gap. An AtlasIntel poll released last week reported a 6-point lead for Lula, with 49% to Bolsonaro's 43%. A Datafolha poll from late July found a 5-point edge for the incumbent. These differing results highlight the variability among polls in the run-up to the election.
Bolsonaro has drawn endorsements from right-wing conservative figures overseas, including Argentina's Javier Milei, but his campaign has faced challenges domestically in securing alliances with Brazil's larger centrist and center-right parties since his official campaign launch. The challenger has not yet named a running mate.
Voters in Brazil will cast ballots on October 4 in the first round, with a potential runoff scheduled for three weeks later if no candidate achieves a decisive majority in the opening round.
Context and implications
The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll's movement from late July to the present shows a closer race within the stated statistical uncertainty. Other recent surveys diverge in their margins, underscoring the fluidity of voter preferences as the campaign progresses. Bolsonaro's international endorsements and domestic difficulties forming formal alliances are reported factors in the trajectory of his campaign, while the lack of an announced running mate contributes to remaining uncertainties.