Jefferies has initiated formal coverage of the Europe, Middle East and Africa precious metals mining universe, identifying Endeavour Mining, Hochschild Mining and Pan African Resources as its preferred Buy-rated selections and opening Fresnillo and Valterra Platinum at Hold.
The launch comes in the wake of a notable selloff among gold miners. Jefferies' team, led by Giovanni Holmes, noted that miners have lagged the FTSE by about 20% and bullion by around 10% over the past six weeks following the June FOMC meeting. Against that backdrop, the analysts see what they call "compelling value" in the three Buy picks, which are the names most exposed to the gold price and which the team says present idiosyncratic catalysts capable of driving earnings even if commodity prices remain flat.
Jefferies is forecasting a higher-than-consensus gold price, calling for an average of roughly $4,600 per ounce through 2030. The broker said that structural forces - including G7 currency debasement, M2 growth and sustained central bank buying - underpin this view and "are still very much in place." While the analysts flagged shifting rate expectations as a near-term risk, they also suggested that gold "has likely absorbed some of this downside already."
"Commodity price leverage has always been - and will remain - the primary value driver for miners," the analysts wrote, but they added that attention is shifting toward stock-specific catalysts that can unlock value irrespective of broad commodity moves.
Jefferies' individual company assessments include detailed targets and modeled outcomes.
Endeavour Mining is rated Buy with a price target of 5,700p, which the broker says implies about 62% upside from Friday's closing price. Jefferies expects a re-rating as the Assafou project build progresses and as a grade inflection at Sabodala approaches. The firm models roughly $5 billion of free cash flow over the next three years for Endeavour, which it says would allow capital returns "well in excess" of the company's $1 billion 2026-28 minimum dividend commitment. On an earnings basis, Jefferies modeled roughly 80% EBITDA expansion by 2030 at spot prices.
Hochschild Mining receives a Buy rating with a 625p price target, or approximately 45% upside. The analysts said current shares appear to be pricing in Mara Rosa ramp-up risks and declining grades, yet do not fully reflect the turnaround progress or a projected production step-change from mining-friendly regions by the end of the decade. Jefferies forecasts free cash flow for Hochschild to rise by more than 500%, reaching about $1.2 billion by 2029.
Pan African Resources is also a Buy with a 130p target, implying roughly 41% upside. Jefferies described Pan African as "reshaping its portfolio" by driving production from higher-grade sources and shifting its earnings mix toward Tier 1 jurisdictions. The analysts expect production growth to drive approximately 600 basis points of margin expansion and project about a 13% EBITDA CAGR through 2028.
By contrast, Fresnillo and Valterra Platinum were started at Hold. Fresnillo carries a 2,700p target and Valterra Platinum a target of 1,250 South African rand. Jefferies said both names show improving fundamentals but that "limited upside to our price targets reflects shares already trading closer to fair value," and the team indicated it is "awaiting a better entry" on both stocks.
The initiation outlines a view that the sector is at a crossroads: while macro price leverage remains central to valuation, stock-specific developments and corporate execution will increasingly determine winners and losers. The report balances a constructive medium-term gold price outlook against the near-term uncertainty created by shifting rate expectations and recent market underperformance.
Analysts led by Giovanni Holmes framed their coverage by pointing to both macro and micro drivers - structural support for gold and individual company catalysts - and provided concrete price targets and modeled cash flow and earnings trajectories for the names under coverage.