SAO PAULO, Aug 3 - A Nexus/BTG Pactual survey released Monday shows a highly competitive contest between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil approaches October's presidential election.
In the poll's simulated head-to-head runoff scenario Lula registers 46% support versus 45% for Bolsonaro. That represents a narrowing of the gap from an earlier Nexus poll taken on July 27, which had Lula ahead 47% to 43%.
The survey also presented a first-round projection. In that scenario Lula leads with 41% of votes, followed by Bolsonaro on 37%. Other named contenders placed well below the two frontrunners: Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4% and Romeu Zema at 3%.
By comparison, the previous first-round reading showed Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 33%. Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round the two highest-polling candidates advance to a runoff.
The poll was carried out from July 31 to August 2, with 2,002 individuals surveyed and a stated margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Separately, the party formalized Lula's candidacy on Sunday. The 80-year-old was officially named the Workers' Party candidate for a fourth non-consecutive term and used his nomination to pledge increased defense investment and protections for Brazil's rare earths.
Context and implications
The new results reflect a tightening of voter preferences since late July, with the right-wing senator closing the gap in both first-round and runoff scenarios. The small margins between the top two candidates, combined with the poll's margin of error, underscore the potential for movement in either direction as the campaign proceeds.
Because the survey includes both first-round and runoff simulations, it highlights two clear pathways the election could follow depending on whether a candidate surpasses the 50% threshold in the initial ballot.
Methodology note
Nexus reported surveying 2,002 people between July 31 and August 2 and assessed the results with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.