Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is leaning toward easing monetary policy rather than tightening it over the coming year, a shift driven by softer-than-expected inflation and signs of slowing economic activity, Council member Ireneusz Dabrowski said.
Poland’s policy rate stands at 3.75%. Dabrowski, one of the 10 members of the MPC, said that recent data have reduced concerns within the panel that an increase in that benchmark may be required. He added that while the council has not categorically ruled out further tightening, the likelihood of a rate hike is diminishing.
"If we’re talking about a possible rate change in the future, based on the data we have today, a cut is more likely than a hike," Dabrowski said.
Those comments echo positions expressed by Governor Adam Glapinski and fellow MPC member Gabriela Maslowska, both of whom see the probability of a rate increase as falling. The change in the MPC’s stance arrives as the Czech Republic weighs a potential hike and the European Central Bank has moved to raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2023.
Dabrowski described a broad shift in sentiment across the council: "Almost the entire MPC is now more optimistic" about inflation and the necessity of policy changes. He contrasted the current outlook with expectations from one to two months earlier, saying: "Just a month or two ago, we were anticipating a much worse scenario than the one now unfolding."
Officials’ worries that the conflict in the Middle East might push Polish inflation higher have eased after headline inflation slowed to 3.1% in May, a moderation that undercut forecasts of an acceleration beyond the central bank’s tolerance range.
Dabrowski added that slowing economic growth "also suggests that there is no need to raise interest rates." He noted that Poland could still have scope to lower rates even if the government decides to remove the current fuel price cap.
"If forecasts indicate that inflationary pressures have eased, then the door will be open for at least one rate cut," Dabrowski said. "There is a very slim chance that a single, modest rate cut could occur this year."
While council members increasingly view rate cuts as more plausible, the MPC has not taken tightening off the table entirely. Policymakers continue to base decisions on incoming data, acknowledging both the potential for geopolitical or other shocks to alter the outlook and the current signals from inflation and growth statistics.