Stock Markets May 3, 2026 09:35 AM

Survey: AI Cuts Roles but Boosts Output Across Major Economies

Morgan Stanley AlphaWise finds net job losses alongside double-digit productivity gains as firms redeploy and hire in response to AI

By Caleb Monroe
Survey: AI Cuts Roles but Boosts Output Across Major Economies

A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey of companies in the US, UK, Germany, Japan and Australia reports an average net workforce decline of 4% as AI adoption rises. While automation directly removed 11% of roles and left 12% unfilled, these effects were partly offset by 18% new hiring and retraining efforts. Productivity climbed an average of 11.5%, with the largest efficiency gains in IT, software development and customer service.

Key Points

  • Survey across the US, UK, Germany, Japan and Australia finds an average 4% net job loss tied to AI adoption.
  • AI automation eliminated 11% of jobs and left 12% unfilled, partially offset by 18% new hiring; productivity rose 11.5%, led by IT, software development and customer service.
  • Regional and sectoral variation: UK saw the largest job losses, the US recorded a 2% net employment gain, automotive suffered the sharpest declines while real estate saw small gains.

Artificial intelligence is reshaping employment patterns in multiple advanced economies, producing a mix of job reductions, redeployments and productivity improvements, according to a new AlphaWise study conducted by Morgan Stanley. The survey, which spans firms in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and Australia, reports a modest overall contraction in payrolls as AI tools become more widely used.

On average, companies reported a 4% net loss of jobs over the past year correlated with AI adoption. That headline figure reflects offsetting movements inside firms: 11% of positions were eliminated through AI-driven automation while 12% of roles were left unfilled. These losses were not the whole story, however, as businesses also recorded 18% in new hiring tied to the same technological shifts, signaling an ongoing workforce reshaping rather than an outright reduction in employment opportunities.

The survey highlights clear regional differences. The United Kingdom experienced the largest net reductions in employment, while the United States diverged from that pattern and recorded a 2% net increase in jobs. The US outcome was associated with relatively stronger hiring and more active retraining efforts by employers, the survey indicates.

Disruption was concentrated among early-career workers. Employees with roughly 2-5 years of experience were identified as the group most exposed to change: they were simultaneously the most likely to lose roles and the most likely to be retrained or redeployed as companies adapted processes and job scopes around AI capabilities.

Sectoral effects varied. The automotive industry experienced the steepest declines in staffing levels, according to the survey, while real estate showed small gains in employment. Company size also mattered: smaller firms tended to emphasize retraining existing staff, whereas mid-sized companies reported the highest levels of job losses.

Despite reductions in some roles, firms reported meaningful efficiency improvements tied to AI. Average productivity rose by 11.5% across the surveyed companies. The most pronounced gains were concentrated in areas where automation and AI tools are more readily applied, including information technology, software development and customer service.


Methodological note: The findings come from the AlphaWise survey conducted by Morgan Stanley and cover companies across the five named countries. The survey measures reported changes in employment and productivity in relation to AI adoption. Where details are limited in the survey, those limitations are reflected in the reported results rather than supplemented with additional claims.

Risks

  • Concentrated disruption among early-career workers (2-5 years experience) could increase labor-market churn and retraining costs, particularly in sectors with high exposure such as automotive and customer service.
  • Mid-sized firms reporting the highest job losses may face operational and retention challenges as they adjust headcount and redeploy or retrain employees.
  • Variation across regions and sectors creates uncertainty for workforce planning, with some economies (e.g., the UK) experiencing larger net losses while others (e.g., the US) see net gains tied to hiring and retraining efforts.

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