May 4 - A growing list of listed companies in Australia and New Zealand have started to disclose the financial pressures emanating from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, attributing higher energy and freight costs, interruptions to shipping routes and weaker consumer or surgical demand to the deterioration in near-term prospects. Firms across transport, banking, retail, construction materials, packaging and dairy said the conflict is contributing to inflationary pressures, supply-chain disruption and margin compression.
Airlines and airports
Air New Zealand was among the first carriers in the region to acknowledge the hit. The airline suspended its full-year earnings outlook in early March and said it had increased fares in response to volatility in jet fuel markets. On April 7 the carrier confirmed it would cut flights through May and June, a move that affects about 4% of its scheduled flights and roughly 1% of total passenger volumes.
Auckland International Airport reported significant disruptions on Middle Eastern routes. Passenger numbers on those routes fell by 81% in March compared with the same month a year earlier, and seat capacity decreased by 73%, the airport operator said, underlining the sudden loss of long-haul traffic through the gateway.
Qantas Airways raised its fuel cost outlook for the second half of the year by up to A$800 million and said it had not begun a planned A$150 million share buyback as a result of sharply higher and volatile jet fuel prices. To manage the higher cost base, Qantas is increasing fares, shifting capacity toward stronger international routes such as Paris and Rome and reducing domestic capacity by about five percentage points in the June quarter.
Virgin Australia also flagged a material near-term impact, expecting fuel expenses to rise by around A$30 million to A$40 million for the second half of fiscal 2026. The airline said in mid-March it was adjusting fares to reflect rising aviation costs that are being exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East.
Freight, logistics and ports
Qube Holdings expects an earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation (EBITA) impact of roughly A$10 million to A$20 million for fiscal 2026 attributable to the conflict. The logistics group noted, however, that recent developments could spur a faster roll-out of investment into alternative energy projects, a dynamic the company said could prove advantageous for its business over time.
Orora, a packaging company, lowered its annual earnings outlook for its French Saverglass unit and cancelled its share buyback programme, citing effects from the conflict. Orora also stopped bottle production at its glass plant in Ras al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates because shipping routes were closed, directly disrupting export operations.
Manufacturing and construction materials
Fletcher Building in New Zealand said it has indirect exposure to the conflict through supply chains, freight routes, higher energy costs and the wider economic impact on construction demand across Australasia. The construction materials maker said it expects to pass some cost increases through to customers, and flagged immediate pressure on its plastics business with price increases of up to 36%; other divisions are expected to see price rises of between 1% and 5% as a result of cost pass-through.
Worley, the engineering firm, estimated the adverse effect on its underlying EBITA for fiscal 2026 to be in the range of A$30 million to A$40 million. The company warned it would be unlikely to achieve growth in underlying EBITA during the fiscal year, while it remained focused on delivering higher aggregated revenue than in fiscal 2025.
Waste, packaging and supply-chain costs
Cleanaway Waste Management reduced its full-year operating earnings forecast by about A$20 million. The company attributed the downgrade largely to higher operating costs, lower activity levels and timing differences in the recovery of costs, linking those pressures to higher input prices and disrupted operations.
Endeavour Group, the operator behind the Dan Murphy's liquor chain, said freight and fuel inflation tied to the Iran war would lift its supply-chain costs by about A$6 million to A$8 million. The retailer has started a three-year efficiency programme to deliver A$100 million in savings by fiscal 2027 through reductions in support office headcount, store optimisation and other measures aimed at offsetting rising input costs.
Food, dairy and agriculture
a2 Milk cut its fiscal 2026 profit guidance after higher freight costs and transient supply-chain disruption affected the availability of its China-labelled infant milk formula product in its largest market. The company cited the conflict as a factor increasing distribution and logistical challenges.
Fonterra said the conflict was creating supply-chain impacts that could raise its inventory levels and costs in the second half of the year and would add to volatility in global commodity prices. The co-operative framed the developments as a contributor to cost uncertainty for its operations.
Healthcare and medical devices
Cochlear trimmed its profit forecast for 2026 after weaker trading in developed markets. The hearing implants maker reported slower surgical volumes, fewer hearing-aid referrals and softer consumer sentiment. Management added that the Middle East war has heightened the risk of order cancellations, delivery delays and greater receivables exposure, which together are intensifying margin pressure and increasing the cost of restructuring.
Banks and financials
National Australia Bank (NAB) said it expects to record credit impairment charges of A$706 million in the first half of fiscal 2026. NAB also warned that second-quarter interest-rate volatility and a weaker New Zealand dollar, combined with the increased provisioning, would reduce its common equity Tier 1 capital ratio by about 20 basis points as of March 31. To strengthen its balance sheet, NAB said it plans to apply a 1.5% discount to its first-half dividend reinvestment plan to raise up to A$1.8 billion.
Westpac reported that energy market shocks tied to the conflict were starting to place pressure on profits in the first half of the financial year ended March 31 and prompted the bank to raise credit provisioning. The lender said its net interest margin in the treasury and markets division had weakened amid interest-rate volatility linked to the conflict, and that provisioning for potential bad debts had reached the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail and supermarkets
Woolworths, Australia’s largest supermarket operator, said the conflict had introduced significant uncertainty for customers and suppliers, exacerbating already acute cost-of-living pressures. Woolworths warned that domestic food segment earnings growth for fiscal 2026 would no longer reach the upper end of previously stated guidance because of fuel-price pressures and investments to support customer retention. The company said it would freeze shelf prices on 300 household staples for three months from May 1 in response to supplier cost pressures.
Financial implications and market signals
Across the companies that disclosed impacts, common themes are higher fuel and freight costs, logistics and shipping disruptions, increased provisioning in the banking sector and demand softness in some consumer-facing businesses. Several firms have responded by pulling or suspending guidance, trimming profit forecasts, delaying buybacks, cutting capacity and implementing cost-savings programmes. A subset of logistics and services firms also flagged potential strategic opportunities, such as accelerated investment in alternative energy projects, that could emerge from the current volatility.
Key points
- Higher fuel and freight prices, along with closed shipping routes, are squeezing margins and driving downgrades, suspended guidance and cost-management actions across multiple sectors.
- Airlines, airports and logistics companies report immediate operational impacts, including route cancellations and lower passenger and seat capacity on certain international routes.
- Banks and large retailers are increasing provisioning and shifting capital plans in response to weaker market conditions and inflationary pressures.
Risks and uncertainties
- Persistent volatility in jet fuel and freight markets could further erode airline profitability and prompt additional capacity reductions or fare changes, affecting the aviation sector.
- Continued disruption to shipping routes and freight capacity may extend supply-chain delays, raise inventory levels and push input costs higher for manufacturers, retailers and exporters.
- Energy market shocks and interest-rate volatility could keep pressure on bank margins and credit provisioning, with consequences for capital ratios and shareholder distributions.
This report compiles company disclosures and public statements by affected firms. Where companies provided numerical estimates or specific operational changes, those figures have been reported as issued.