Berenberg launched research coverage on Hamburg-listed Chapters Group AG with a buy rating and a target share price of €42. The brokerage framed Chapters as a consolidation platform in Europe’s fragmented vertical market software landscape, where the business is expected to expand through targeted acquisitions and margin improvement at portfolio companies.
At the time of the initiation, Chapters carried a market capitalization of €751 million and an enterprise value of €962 million. The holding comprises over 60 specialised software businesses across Germany, France, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, each operating in verticals where software is described as mission critical to customers.
Analyst Andreas Wolf outlined an aggressive growth profile for the group, forecasting compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in both revenue and adjusted EBIT of more than 40% between 2025 and 2027. Berenberg modeled revenue climbing from €160.0 million in 2025 to €350.1 million in 2027, while adjusted EBIT was projected to reach €52.1 million in 2027, up from €21.6 million in 2025.
On valuation, the brokerage calculated that Chapters would trade at an enterprise value to adjusted EBIT multiple of 19.2 times on its 2027 estimates. That stands above a peer-median multiple of 13.9 times, the latter based on 2028 estimates. Berenberg argued the premium is warranted, pointing to Chapters’ materially stronger projected earnings growth; the note cites a 2026-2028 adjusted EBIT CAGR for Chapters of more than 50% versus a peer average of 13%.
Berenberg also ran a discounted cash flow (DCF) that incorporated assumed future acquisitions. The model used a weighted average cost of capital of 8.2%, a terminal growth rate of 2% and a sustainable EBIT margin of 18.5%. A parallel peer-group assessment produced an implied valuation range of €32 to €53 per share.
The company has articulated strict acquisition criteria as part of its roll-up strategy. Chapters targets deals priced below 6.5 times EBITDA, focusing on businesses with at least €2 million of annual revenue, recurring revenue above 50% and low customer concentration. Based on those parameters, Berenberg estimated there are between 15,000 and 22,000 potential targets across Europe that meet the criteria.
To support its thesis on pricing power and revenue resilience within the portfolio, the research note highlighted examples from Chapters’ assets. One portfolio company reportedly implemented a price increase of 84% without losing customers. On a pro-forma basis, recurring revenue amounted to €93.0 million at the end of 2025, representing 48% of the group’s €193.0 million pro-forma revenue base.
Revenue by end market in the first half of 2025 was concentrated in Public Sector at 45%, followed by Enterprise at 30% and Financial Technologies at 24%.
Ownership of Chapters is split between several strategic and institutional shareholders. Key stakes include Sator Grove Holdings with 15.1%, Mitchell Rales - co-founder of Danaher - with 14.6%, Stravaigin (the family office linked to Daniel Ek) with 11.2%, and MIT Investment Management with 6.8%. The company’s free float stood at 52.3%.
Balance-sheet dynamics were a focus in Berenberg’s modelling. Net debt totalled €238.1 million at the end of 2025 and, in the broker’s forecasts, was expected to decline to €188.6 million in 2026 before rising again to €227.2 million in 2027 as acquisition activity accelerated. The bank assumed annual acquisition outflows of €114.3 million in 2026 and €123.8 million in 2027.
Berenberg flagged several execution and market risks to its investment case. These included the potential for weaker-than-expected deal flow and heightened competition for target businesses, reliance on key personnel across the group, and the possibility that advances in artificial intelligence could reduce software switching costs for customers.
Contextual note - The initiation frames Chapters as a buy-and-build consolidator with significant runway for M&A and operational improvement, while the valuation premium versus peers rests on the assumption that the company will deliver materially higher adjusted EBIT growth in the medium term.