Economy May 7, 2026 04:16 AM

Markets Rally on Prospect of Iran Peace Framework; Oil Holds Near $100

U.S. futures trend higher as traders weigh diplomatic progress in Iran; energy prices remain elevated and Shell posts strong quarterly results

By Hana Yamamoto

U.S. equity futures moved higher early Thursday as reports circulated that Washington and Tehran are negotiating a compact framework that could kick-start peace talks next week in Pakistan. Oil prices slipped from recent peaks yet stayed close to $100 a barrel amid lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, while energy and chip sectors reacted to corporate updates and geopolitical developments. Shell reported stronger-than-expected adjusted earnings for the first quarter of 2026, underscoring continued market volatility tied to the conflict and commodity flows.

Markets Rally on Prospect of Iran Peace Framework; Oil Holds Near $100

Key Points

  • U.S. futures rose modestly early Thursday as reports suggested Washington and Tehran are working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart peace talks in Pakistan next week - impacts equity markets and geopolitical risk sentiment.
  • Oil remained near $100 a barrel, with Brent trading down 2% at $99.23 a barrel, as traders weighed the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing effect of reduced shipping through the route - significant for the energy sector and consumer fuel prices.
  • Shell reported stronger-than-expected adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $17.7 billion, while the company trimmed its quarterly buyback to $3 billion - relevant for energy equities and corporate cash-flow analysis.

U.S. stock-index futures were modestly higher on Thursday, extending a rally that followed fresh optimism about a possible end to the months-long conflict involving Iran. The early move in futures suggested traders were pricing in further gains after major U.S. averages closed at record levels on Wednesday.

By 03:39 ET (07:39 GMT), Dow futures were up by 113 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had risen 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed 77 points, or 0.3%.

Wednesday's session saw the main U.S. indexes reach new highs on reports that negotiators from the U.S. and Iran were edging toward a compact to halt the conflict. Chip-related stocks contributed to the advance after strong performances from Advanced Micro Devices and a sharp rally in Super Micro Computer, the latter jumping by more than 24% on an upbeat quarterly revenue outlook. Analysts at Vital Knowledge characterized the move as an acceleration for equities driven by optimism over Iran, another round of solid earnings, and continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related names.


Diplomatic momentum and remaining disagreements

Officials in Washington and Tehran have, according to reports, been coordinating with mediators on a one-page framework intended to reopen talks on a broader peace agreement. The next steps were reported to include the start of discussions next week in Pakistan, with a subsequent monthlong process envisaged to tackle thorny issues such as Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief.

That process, as described in the reports, would aim to settle outstanding disputes. Nonetheless, significant differences remain on core matters like nuclear enrichment levels and inspection protocols.

President Donald Trump commented at the White House that the United States had "won" the war and described recent exchanges with Tehran as "very good" over the prior 24 hours. Earlier, the president wrote in a social media post that the U.S. operation, conducted jointly with Israel and launched in late February, would end if Tehran "agrees to give what has been agreed to," without providing further detail, and he warned that attacks could resume if no accord materializes.

Messaging from Tehran has been mixed. Iran's foreign minister said Iranian officials were reviewing a U.S. proposal and would share their assessment with Pakistan. Other outlets cited an unnamed Iranian official who characterized the U.S. plan as an American wish list. Media reports noted that Iran was expected to deliver a response to mediators by Thursday.


Oil markets: high volatility persists

Against this backdrop, crude oil remained near the $100-a-barrel threshold. Traders were attempting to assess the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut for weeks and is a critical shipping lane for roughly one fifth of the world's oil flows.

Brent crude futures were last reported down by 2% at $99.23 a barrel. Although that represented a pullback from recent peaks, prices continued to sit well above levels recorded before the conflict began.

The prolonged energy shock is showing through in consumer prices at the pump. U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4.50 a gallon, a level not seen since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022. President Trump said he was surprised oil had not climbed even higher, stating that he expected prices to "go to $200, $250," and he reiterated that the conflict would have been "worth it" even if crude had reached such levels.


Broader policy and technology developments

Separately, Washington and Beijing were reported to be contemplating formal dialogues on artificial intelligence. The discussions could be added to the agenda for a planned summit next week between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, with an eye toward shared concerns about AI systems behaving unpredictably, the deployment of autonomous military systems, and AI-facilitated attacks by non-state actors.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was named as the anticipated U.S. lead for the AI talks, while no Chinese counterpart had been designated at the time of the reports.


Energy sector earnings: Shell's quarterly update

Oil major Shell reported adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for the first quarter of 2026, beating the analyst consensus figure of $6.36 billion and rising from $5.58 billion a year earlier. The company attributed the increase to stronger trading and optimization in Downstream and Renewables, higher realized prices, improved refining margins, and reduced operating costs.

Shell also trimmed its quarterly share buyback program to $3 billion from $3.5 billion in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $17.7 billion from $15.3 billion in the year-ago quarter, while operating cash flow was $6.1 billion. Management noted that cash flow was weighed down by an $11.2 billion working-capital outflow tied to inventory and receivable movements driven by commodity price fluctuations.


Market implications

Equity markets reacted to the confluence of diplomatic signals, corporate earnings momentum, and continued strength in AI demand. Chipmakers in particular benefited from positive results and upbeat revenue outlooks among key suppliers to the AI server ecosystem.

Energy markets remain acutely sensitive to developments in the Middle East and to any signs the Strait of Hormuz might be reopened to normal commercial traffic. Until a durable agreement addressing nuclear and inspection-related disputes is reached, traders are likely to treat oil as vulnerable to renewed volatility.


The mix of geopolitical reporting, central corporate updates, and technology-policy overtures presented a complex market picture with cross-sector impacts on energy, semiconductors, and broader risk assets. Investors continued to watch diplomatic channels closely for clarity on the potential timeline and substance of any settlement.

Risks

  • No guarantee of a finalized accord - key disagreements remain over nuclear enrichment and inspections, leaving energy markets and regional security exposed to renewed disruptions.
  • Mixed messaging from Tehran introduces timing and content uncertainty around any response to mediators, which could prolong volatility in oil markets and weigh on risk appetite for equities.
  • Working-capital swings from commodity price movements may continue to affect corporate cash flows in the energy sector, as illustrated by Shell's $11.2 billion working-capital outflow that pressured operating cash flow.

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