Stock Markets May 7, 2026 02:52 AM

Bernstein Sees Upside in Two Japanese Game Developers

Analyst cites franchise strength, recent hit titles and macro catalysts such as the World Cup and lower platform fees

By Ajmal Hussain

Bernstein has reiterated Outperform ratings on two Japanese videogame developers, highlighting a combination of strong product performance and near-term catalysts that could support revenue and earnings. Capcom's recent releases and upcoming content and media tie-ins underpin a raised guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026, while Konami stands to gain from heightened engagement around the World Cup, a large downloads campaign and a projected decline in aggregate platform fees for eFootball.

Bernstein Sees Upside in Two Japanese Game Developers

Key Points

  • Capcom’s recent releases - Resident Evil Requiem (7 million units sold), favorable reception for Monster Hunter Stories 3, and Pragmata’s surprise performance - helped support a guidance increase for the fiscal year ending March 2026.
  • Konami saw notable engagement gains in April after announcing a billion downloads campaign on April 9; Steam concurrent users in April are approximately 6% higher than average March quarter levels and about 36% higher year over year.
  • Bernstein expects lower aggregate platform fees, driven by Google’s 20% implementation, to provide an earnings tailwind for Konami, with eFootball’s platform-fee burden estimated to fall from 27-28% in FY ending March 2026 to 22-23% by FY ending March 2029.

Bernstein has identified two Japanese videogame developers it views as well positioned for strength over the coming months, maintaining Outperform ratings on both. The firm’s analysis centers on studios that combine established franchises with improving financial momentum and discrete catalysts that could sustain growth.

Capcom remains a focal point for Bernstein thanks to a mix of recent software performance and forthcoming content that the analyst expects will support the company’s medium-term outlook. Resident Evil Requiem has sold 7 million units, Monster Hunter Stories 3 has collected generally favorable reviews, and Pragmata has performed better than expected. Bernstein notes these titles were important contributors to Capcom’s decision to raise guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

Looking ahead, the analyst expects the next 12 to 18 months to be rich in potential catalysts for Capcom. Two movies are scheduled for the September quarter, and the studio’s remake Onimusha is likely to land around the same period. Bernstein also anticipates the company will use summer showcase events to outline more of its future release slate, which the firm believes should help investors assess the medium-term growth trajectory.

Konami is flagged for both immediate and multi-year opportunities. The World Cup is described as an immediate catalyst for the shares, while longer-term growth is expected to come from new user acquisition in additional markets and a reduction in mobile platform fee burdens. April engagement has shown a notable uptick, a trend Bernstein highlights following Konami’s announcement of a billion downloads campaign on April 9.

Data points cited by the analyst include Steam concurrent users in April to date that are roughly 6 percent above average March quarter levels and about 36 percent higher compared with the same period a year earlier. On the cost side, Bernstein notes Google’s implementation of a 20 percent platform fee should be an earnings tailwind. The firm estimates Konami’s aggregate platform fee expense for eFootball will fall from an estimated 27 to 28 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 to roughly 22 to 23 percent by the fiscal year ending March 2029. Bernstein also expects Konami’s other domestic mobile titles to benefit from this platform-fee decline.


What this means for markets

  • Video game developers with proven franchises and active content pipelines can produce measurable near-term upside in earnings and engagement metrics.
  • Platform fee structures and large-scale marketing campaigns are material drivers of profitability for mobile and cross-platform titles.
  • Entertainment tie-ins, such as films timed to game releases, function as coordinated catalysts that can influence investor sentiment around media and gaming sectors.

Bernstein’s view reflects a product-centric assessment: recent consumer reception and distribution economics are key inputs to the firm’s conviction on both names.

Risks

  • Capcom’s projected momentum depends on the sustained commercial performance of recent and upcoming titles as well as investor confidence tied to summer showcase disclosures - any underperformance or delayed communications could affect the medium-term growth outlook.
  • Konami’s positive trajectory is linked to World Cup-related engagement and successful user acquisition in new markets; if the event-driven uplift or acquisition efforts underdeliver, the anticipated growth may be weaker than expected.
  • The expected earnings benefit from lower platform fees assumes the projected decline in aggregate fee burdens for eFootball and other mobile titles materializes as estimated; if platform-fee dynamics change differently, earnings tailwinds may be smaller.

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