The United Nations weather agency said on Tuesday that a moderate, and potentially strong, El Nino is developing and could lift global temperatures while increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explained that El Nino is a recurring warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts nine to 12 months. The WMO said warm ocean waters are fueling current El Nino development and forecast above-average temperatures across most of the globe from June to August. It added that El Nino is likely to remain in place until November.
Officials noted uncertainty about how severe the event will become because model projections diverge. Still, the WMO urged preparedness. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Projected regional impacts
The WMO described the pattern’s tendency to disrupt regional climates in different ways. It said El Nino typically brings warmer conditions globally while increasing rainfall for southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia. Conversely, the WMO said El Nino can generate drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of south Asia, and can encourage hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific.
The organization also pointed to wider societal consequences tied to extreme heat. Saulo said that heat extremes can drive a broader spread of vector-borne diseases carried by mosquitoes and ticks and can reduce available food and water supplies, noting that "communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits."
The WMO recalled that the previous El Nino, which meteorologists judged to be strong during 2023 to 2024, helped make 2024 the hottest year on record, according to Saulo.
Market and consumer implications cited
The U.N. statement highlighted potential economic and market pressures. It said consumers, already facing inflation tied to the Iran war, may see further rises in food prices because of El Nino. Hein Schumacher, chief executive of Barry Callebaut, a major cocoa processor, warned that crops in Ecuador and West Africa - regions that together account for 60% of global cocoa output - could be reduced. "This is something that we are very cautiously observing," he said on a media call. "El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per ton." The article noted London cocoa futures were trading at 3,2,944 per metric ton, down from more than 9,000 in April 2024.
Some national weather services have predicted what they describe as the strongest El Nino in a decade. The WMO, while more measured, reported that it had observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, forming a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
Policy reaction
U.N. Secretary-General Ant F3nio Guterres framed the forecast as a further signal on the climate front, urging a transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy. "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," he said.
The WMO emphasized the need for preparation in the face of uncertainty over the event’s final strength and the range of potential regional effects. Officials urged communities and sectors exposed to drought, flooding, heat stress, and disease to take account of the heightened risks while monitoring evolving model guidance.
Summary of the forecast and immediate concerns: The WMO forecasts a moderate-to-possibly-strong El Nino, driven by unusually warm subsurface Pacific waters, likely to raise global temperatures from June through August and to persist until at least November. The organization warned of increased risks of drought, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, vector-borne disease spread, and pressure on food and water supplies, and noted possible market effects such as higher food prices and impacts on cocoa output.