Options market data indicates traders expect Blackstone Inc. (BX) to move about 4.2% when the firm issues quarterly results on July 23 ahead of the opening bell. That figure is derived from options-implied volatility surrounding the earnings event.
Looking at recent history, Blackstone's share price has outstripped the options-implied move in five of the last eight earnings reports. The record of actual versus implied moves highlights the potential for the stock to move more sharply than traders' price expectations ahead of certain quarterly releases.
Specific past instances underline the variability. On April 23, options signaled a 6.4% move while the stock fell 6.0%. In January, an implied move of 4.0% preceded an 8.4% decline in the shares. In October 2025, the market priced in a 3.3% swing and the stock declined 5.4%. The prior July carried an implied move of 3.6% and the shares rose 7.3% following the release.
Further examples include April 2025, where an expected 6.1% move contrasted with an actual 5.1% drop in the share price. In January 2025, implied volatility suggested a 3.9% change while the stock fell 2.7%.
The largest divergence between implied and realized movement occurred in October 2024, when options suggested only a 1.3% change but the stock surged 14.4%. In July 2024, options-implied movement was 4.4%, yet shares climbed 9.8% after earnings.
These historical outcomes show that while options-derived estimates provide a market consensus for expected volatility around earnings, actual post-release price behavior can be substantially different. Market participants watching BX into the July 23 release will be weighing that pattern of outsized moves against the current 4.2% implied expectation.
Data note: The 4.2% figure and the historical comparisons are derived from options-implied moves and the stock's actual percentage changes on the respective post-earnings trading days.