A recent S&P Global Energy study projects that U.S. liquefied natural gas - or LNG - exports will emerge as the nation's second-largest net export industry within the next five years, delivering nearly $1.4 trillion to gross domestic product by 2040.
The study highlights a milestone in 2025 when the United States exported more than 100 million metric tons of LNG in a single year, a level supported by new production facilities. That export growth is central to the study's wider economic estimates.
According to the report, total investment across the U.S. LNG supply chain is expected to exceed $1 trillion through 2040. The analysis notes that investment activity is set to increase further following the removal of an export pause that occurred last year.
Beyond headline GDP gains, the study lays out several additional economic effects. It forecasts $2.9 trillion in aggregate revenue from LNG exports, $206 billion in tax receipts and nearly $630 billion in labor income over the study period. Those figures frame the sector's contribution not only to national output but to public finances and payrolls.
On the energy-demand side, the report estimates that feedgas demand - natural gas used as feedstock for liquefaction - will rise to 36 billion cubic feet per day by 2031, roughly double current levels. The study also concludes that U.S. LNG could account for approximately one-third of the global market within five years.
Household energy bills are not immune to these changes. The study projects that average domestic household gas costs will increase by 1.6% between 2026 and 2031.
The analysis further warns of potential global price effects tied to U.S. export capacity. If planned U.S. export capacity is not realized, the study predicts that prices in Europe and Asia could be 50% higher than they otherwise would be.
Context and implications
The S&P Global Energy findings connect accelerated export capacity and new liquefaction facilities to large-scale capital spending and sustained revenues across multiple segments of the economy. The projected rise in feedgas demand also ties upstream gas production and midstream pipeline flows more closely to the international LNG market.
The study's estimates provide quantified expectations for policymakers, investors and energy companies weighing the trade-offs between export-driven growth, domestic energy prices and the pace of infrastructure deployment.