Commodities July 16, 2026 07:36 AM

Markets Tepid After Mixed Signals from Chips, Inflation and Geopolitics

TSMC’s blowout quarter fails to halt broader tech sell-off as inflation readings and Middle East tensions keep investors cautious

By Ajmal Hussain
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Global equities and risk assets showed muted responses after uneven corporate results, cooling inflation data and renewed geopolitical tensions. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a surprise profit jump, but chip shares remained under pressure. Softer U.S. producer price data eased near-term rate-hike bets, yet core PCE remains above 3% annually, and oil has pushed back above $80 a barrel. SpaceX shares slid below their IPO price amid looming lockup expiries and upcoming earnings.

Markets Tepid After Mixed Signals from Chips, Inflation and Geopolitics
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Key Points

  • TSMC reported a 77% surge in profits, yet semiconductor stocks broadly struggled, highlighting uneven market reactions - sectors impacted: Semiconductors, Technology.
  • Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Prices Index eased near-term Fed rate-hike speculation, though core PCE remains above 3% for June and July - sectors impacted: Fixed income, Financials.
  • SpaceX shares fell below the $135 IPO offer price and have dropped about 33% from their record close; the stock faces potential further volatility when lockups expire and earnings are released - sectors impacted: Equity markets, Technology.

Markets opened and closed on mixed footing as investors parsed strong corporate earnings from some chipmakers against broader uncertainty on inflation and the impact of escalating violence in the Middle East.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) topped expectations with a striking quarter, reporting a 77% surge in profits that beat forecasts. The result illustrates the bifurcated nature of recent trading - where exceptional company reports do not always translate into sustained sector rallies.

That point was underscored by Europe’s ASML, which also posted results that exceeded expectations but still finished the trading day lower. In Asia, high-flying South Korean technology names fell again as the Bank of Korea raised interest rates to support the won, and regulators moved to restrict new listings of leveraged funds tied to single stocks - vehicles that had contributed to heightened volatility in recent sessions.

Investor appetite for initial public offerings showed signs of cooling. SpaceX, which listed to great fanfare last month at an offer price of $135 a share, traded back below that level for the first time. The stock fell as low as $132 during the session before closing at $135, and it has declined about 33% from its record close in the immediate days after the public sale raised $75 billion on June 11. Despite that retreat, the company remains one of the most valuable listed firms, with a market capitalisation of roughly $1.8 trillion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio approaching 50 times - figures that underscore how richly priced the stock remains even after the drop.


Bond markets and inflation data

Risk sentiment received some support from bond markets after the latest U.S. producer price reading for June came in much softer than anticipated. That result helped strip some of the pricing that had suggested a possible Federal Reserve rate increase this month, reducing short-term rate-hike expectations in futures markets.

Yet the relief is partial. The Fed’s preferred measure, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is still registering annualised rates in excess of 3% for June and July. Given that the central bank watches PCE closely when weighing policy moves, sustained elevated readings would limit how much room there is for monetary easing expectations to broaden.

Another restraint on the hope of quickly easing inflationary pressure is higher world oil prices, which have pushed back above $80 per barrel amid the renewed conflict in Iran in July. That adds the risk that any improvement in inflation prints could prove short-lived if energy costs remain elevated.


Equities: rotation and headlines

On the equities front, sector rotation helped the S&P 500 eke out a modest gain on Wednesday. Still, the broader tone in Asian markets leaned negative despite standout corporate performances. Sterling strengthened, rising to its highest level against the euro in over a year, a move attributed in market reports to Labour Party Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood being seen as the likely choice for UK finance minister.

Chart-watchers and market participants are also eyeing SpaceX for potential further volatility. The number of shares available to trade on the Nasdaq is set to increase materially in early August as insider lockup periods expire and the firm prepares to publish its first earnings report as a public company. Those factors leave the stock exposed to swings.


Events to watch

  • U.S. June retail sales and weekly jobless claims
  • July business outlook from the Philadelphia Fed, July NAHB housing market index, and June pending home sales
  • Corporate reports from Netflix, State Street, General Electric and a group of regional banks
  • Speeches from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid
  • Diplomatic meeting between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron in Germany

These releases and appearances could sharpen market focus on growth, inflation and policy direction in the days ahead.


What this means for markets

The current market picture is one of competing signals. Strong corporate results from parts of the semiconductor supply chain, exemplified by TSMC’s 77% profit surge, are colliding with macro data that is both encouraging and worrying - softer producer prices on one hand and persistently elevated core PCE and rising oil on the other. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and policy shifts in places like South Korea add layers of uncertainty that can amplify sector-specific moves, particularly in technology, energy and financials.

Investors will likely remain attentive to incoming data and corporate newsflow, as well as regulatory and monetary developments that could dictate where risk appetite goes next.

Risks

  • Rising oil prices above $80 per barrel linked to renewed Iran tensions could reverse any temporary inflation relief - sectors at risk: Energy, Consumer goods.
  • Persistently elevated core PCE readings above 3% may constrain monetary easing expectations and keep policy-sensitive sectors volatile - sectors at risk: Financials, Real estate.
  • Regulatory actions and higher interest rates in South Korea, plus restrictions on leveraged single-stock funds, can amplify volatility in Asian equity markets - sectors at risk: Emerging markets, Technology.

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