Stock Markets July 16, 2026 08:51 AM

Bernstein Lifts ASML Target as Capacity, Pricing and Margins Surprise to the Upside

Analyst highlights 30% annual capacity ramps, EUV pricing gains and higher margin guidance as drivers for a €2,500 target

By Priya Menon
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ASML

Bernstein increased its ASML price target to €2,500 from €2,300 after the company's Q2 2026 results delivered what the firm called "triple happiness" - stronger revenue, capacity and margins. Analyst David Dai kept an Outperform rating and pointed to steep capacity ramps for Low NA EUV and ArFi, EUV pricing upside and higher-than-consensus margin guidance as the main catalysts. Barclays also raised its target, citing gross margin strength driven by China DUV recovery, improving EUV pricing and upgrades demand.

Bernstein Lifts ASML Target as Capacity, Pricing and Margins Surprise to the Upside
ASML
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Key Points

  • Bernstein raised ASML's price target to €2,500 from €2,300 and kept an Outperform rating.
  • Analyst David Dai cites three upside drivers: 30% annual capacity increases for Low NA EUV and ArFi in 2027-28, expected EUV ASP growth (10% in 2027 and high-single-digit in 2028), and second-half 2026 margin guidance of 56% versus 52.6% consensus.
  • Barclays also raised its price target to €2,400 and boosted revenue estimates - up 11% for 2026 and 5% for 2027 - noting margin improvement from China DUV recovery, stronger EUV pricing and upgrades demand.

Bernstein raised its price objective for ASML Holding NV to €2,500 from €2,300 after the chip-equipment maker reported second-quarter 2026 results that the firm termed "triple happiness" - a beat-and-raise across revenue, capacity and margins.

Analyst David Dai maintained an Outperform rating and identified three central upside vectors for the stock. First, ASML is planning aggressive capacity growth: Low NA EUV and ArFi capacity are slated to expand by 30% each year in 2027 and 2028, and Bernstein highlighted a DUV capacity figure of 220 in 2028 that comes in ahead of prior expectations.

Second, Bernstein sees scope for stronger pricing. The firm estimates ASML's EUV average selling price will rise 10% in 2027, citing management commentary that Low NA EUV throughput is up 45% year-over-year while capacity is up 30%. Bernstein also expects another high-single-digit percentage increase in average selling price in 2028.

Third, margin improvement featured prominently in Bernstein's note. ASML is guiding a second-half 2026 margin of 56%, which Bernstein observed sits above consensus at 52.6%.

On the back of these inputs, Bernstein raised its revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 to €56 billion and €72 billion, respectively. Earnings-per-share estimates were increased to €53.6 for 2027 and €75.3 for 2028 - a level Bernstein described as 37% above consensus for 2028.

Other brokerages moved as well. Barclays lifted its price target to €2,400 from €2,000 and reaffirmed an Overweight rating. Analyst Simon Coles pointed to gross margins as the "major positive this quarter," attributing the improvement to a recovery in China DUV demand, better EUV pricing and a robust upgrades business.

Barclays also raised its revenue estimates, increasing its 2026 outlook by 11% and its 2027 outlook by 5%. The firm noted that ASML shares remain attractive even after appreciating roughly 150% since September 2025.

The revisions from Bernstein and Barclays center on three operational levers - capacity ramps, pricing trends and margin performance - that together underpin the brokers' higher forecasts for top-line and earnings power.

Risks

  • Consensus forecasts differ materially from Bernstein's outlook - Bernstein's 2028 EPS estimate is 37% above consensus, which reflects forecast dispersion that could lead to divergent market outcomes.
  • ASML shares have appreciated roughly 150% since September 2025, a valuation backdrop that could affect investor returns if operational execution or demand shifts.

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