Bernstein raised its price objective for ASML Holding NV to €2,500 from €2,300 after the chip-equipment maker reported second-quarter 2026 results that the firm termed "triple happiness" - a beat-and-raise across revenue, capacity and margins.
Analyst David Dai maintained an Outperform rating and identified three central upside vectors for the stock. First, ASML is planning aggressive capacity growth: Low NA EUV and ArFi capacity are slated to expand by 30% each year in 2027 and 2028, and Bernstein highlighted a DUV capacity figure of 220 in 2028 that comes in ahead of prior expectations.
Second, Bernstein sees scope for stronger pricing. The firm estimates ASML's EUV average selling price will rise 10% in 2027, citing management commentary that Low NA EUV throughput is up 45% year-over-year while capacity is up 30%. Bernstein also expects another high-single-digit percentage increase in average selling price in 2028.
Third, margin improvement featured prominently in Bernstein's note. ASML is guiding a second-half 2026 margin of 56%, which Bernstein observed sits above consensus at 52.6%.
On the back of these inputs, Bernstein raised its revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 to €56 billion and €72 billion, respectively. Earnings-per-share estimates were increased to €53.6 for 2027 and €75.3 for 2028 - a level Bernstein described as 37% above consensus for 2028.
Other brokerages moved as well. Barclays lifted its price target to €2,400 from €2,000 and reaffirmed an Overweight rating. Analyst Simon Coles pointed to gross margins as the "major positive this quarter," attributing the improvement to a recovery in China DUV demand, better EUV pricing and a robust upgrades business.
Barclays also raised its revenue estimates, increasing its 2026 outlook by 11% and its 2027 outlook by 5%. The firm noted that ASML shares remain attractive even after appreciating roughly 150% since September 2025.
The revisions from Bernstein and Barclays center on three operational levers - capacity ramps, pricing trends and margin performance - that together underpin the brokers' higher forecasts for top-line and earnings power.