Economy July 16, 2026 09:08 AM

IMF Concludes Visit to Dhaka; Talks Set for New Programme as Growth Outlook Weakens

Fund signals slower expansion ahead and urges revenue, subsidy and banking reforms as Bangladesh seeks fresh financing

By Maya Rios
Share
Twitter Reddit Facebook LinkedIn

The International Monetary Fund said its staff completed a visit to Dhaka and will hold discussions on the parameters of a new programme in the coming months. The IMF projects Bangladesh's growth to slow to 3.5% in fiscal 2027 and fall below 3% over the medium term, and urged stronger revenue mobilisation, subsidy rationalisation, tight monetary and prudent fiscal policy, and a credible banking-sector restructuring plan.

IMF Concludes Visit to Dhaka; Talks Set for New Programme as Growth Outlook Weakens
Summarize with
ChatGPT Perplexity Claude Grok Gemini

Key Points

  • IMF staff completed a July 12-16 visit to Dhaka and said talks on a new programme will occur in the coming months.
  • Economic growth is forecast to slow to 3.5% in fiscal 2027 and to weaken further to below 3% over the medium term; this outlook affects public finance, external accounts and investment.
  • The IMF urged stronger revenue mobilisation, subsidy rationalisation, tight monetary policy, prudent fiscal management and a credible banking-sector restructuring plan; energy import costs and banking stress are particular areas of concern.

The International Monetary Fund said on July 16 that its staff team had concluded a visit to Bangladesh, held at the request of the government, and that formal discussions on the contours of a replacement arrangement will take place in the months ahead. The IMF released the projection that Bangladesh's economic growth will moderate to 3.5% in fiscal 2027 and decline further to below 3% over the medium term, according to a statement issued at the end of the July 12-16 mission to Dhaka.

The South Asian nation is seeking a successor to the $5.5 billion bailout programme after the government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, which assumed office in February following elections, opted to exit the earlier arrangement on the grounds that some conditions did not align with national priorities. To date, Bangladesh has drawn about $3.8 billion from the programme that began in 2023 amid a severe foreign exchange crisis under the previous administration.


Economic pressures and near-term outlook

The IMF said Bangladesh continues to face meaningful fiscal, financial and inflationary pressures. It highlighted recent factors that have intensified these strains: the conflict in the Middle East, higher global commodity prices and supply disruptions. These developments have renewed inflationary pressures, elevated import and subsidy bills and worsened external sector strains. The lender also noted that stress in the banking sector remains elevated.

Against this backdrop, the IMF recommended policy measures aimed at stabilising the economy. It called for stronger revenue mobilisation and subsidy rationalisation to create fiscal space for priority social and development spending. The fund also advised the maintenance of tight monetary policy and prudent fiscal management to help reduce inflation and rebuild foreign exchange reserves.


Exchange rate and banking-sector guidance

The IMF said that consistent implementation of the crawling peg exchange-rate regime adopted in 2025 would bolster exchange-rate flexibility and support external stability. On the banking sector, the fund urged that any restructuring be anchored in a credible and comprehensive strategy, reflecting the elevated stress it currently observes.

Separately, the government is pursuing additional financing from multilateral lenders including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to help address persistent inflation, slowing growth, pressure on foreign exchange reserves and higher energy import costs linked to the Middle East conflict.


Next steps

IMF and Bangladeshi authorities have indicated they will negotiate a new programme framework in the coming months, with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury saying earlier that both sides had agreed on a broad framework which envisages phased reforms to reflect challenging economic conditions.

The IMF statement from the end of the mission did not specify dates for the forthcoming discussions or additional lending amounts under a new arrangement. It reiterated policy priorities to reduce inflationary pressures, shore up reserves and underpin long-term external stability.

Risks

  • Elevated inflationary pressures driven by higher global commodity prices and supply disruptions - this poses risks to consumers, fiscal balances and import-dependent sectors.
  • Stress in the banking sector remains elevated - banking vulnerabilities could weigh on financial intermediation and corporate and household credit availability.
  • Pressure on foreign exchange reserves from higher import and subsidy costs and external shocks related to the Middle East conflict - this threatens external stability and exchange-rate flexibility.

More from Economy

Germany’s chemical sector remains under pressure despite fleeting uptick, VCI says Jul 16, 2026 France to Cap Most Public Spending Growth in 2027 as Debt Servicing and Defense Costs Rise Jul 16, 2026 Middle East Sovereign Spreads Reach Near Four-Year High as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Jul 16, 2026 ECB Poised to Pause in July, Poll Shows September Hike Likely as Energy Costs Rebound Jul 16, 2026 Hedge Funds Increase Short Positions in Manufacturing as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Raise Supply-Chain Costs Jul 16, 2026