Rating decision and outlook
S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit ratings at 'BB/B' for both long- and short-term foreign and local currency debt on May 22, 2026. The agency attached a stable outlook to the ratings and left the transfer and convertibility assessment at 'BB+'.
Reserves and the role of gold
The central bank’s international reserves have more than doubled since 2023, rising to $71 billion as of early May 2026, equivalent to 41% of GDP. S&P attributed this expansion largely to favorable gold prices, noting that monetary gold represents roughly 85% of the central bank’s international reserves. Gold alongside other metals accounts for about 40% of Uzbekistan’s merchandise exports, underlining the metal sector’s centrality to reserve accumulation.
S&P projects that usable reserves will reach a peak of $78 billion at the end of 2026 before declining through 2029. That path reflects the firm’s assumptions about gold price movements: a fall from $4,500 in 2026 to $3,700 in 2027 and further to $3,000 for 2028-2029.
Public debt and fiscal trajectory
Net general government debt stood at 23% of GDP at the time of the review. However, S&P highlighted that the government’s development agenda includes sizable debt-financed investments, which the agency expects will push both the debt burden and borrowing costs higher over the medium term. Under S&P’s projections, continued public investment would raise net general government debt to about 34% of GDP by 2029, a notable shift from a net asset position recorded in 2017.
On the fiscal balance, the deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP in 2025, which S&P noted was the smallest deficit since 2018.
External vulnerabilities and trade exposure
S&P assessed Uzbekistan’s exposure to spillover effects from the Middle East conflict as broadly contained. The agency observed that the country’s physical hydrocarbon supplies mainly come from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, while Uzbekistan remains a net importer of hydrocarbons, with imports reaching $3.7 billion in 2025.
Direct trade with conflict-affected Middle Eastern economies is limited to under 3% of total trade. Nevertheless, S&P flagged a specific vulnerability related to transit routes: prior to the war, transit through Iran accounted for 8% of imports and 4% of exports, which could present logistical risk depending on regional developments.
Growth outlook
The economy expanded by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 6.8% in the same quarter of 2025. S&P expects growth to moderate to 6.1% in 2026, then average about 6.5% over 2027-2029. The agency cited strong performance across information and communication, construction, tourism, and trade, as well as resilient household demand and the government’s large-scale investments in energy, mining capacity expansion, and other infrastructure projects, as underpinning the medium-term forecast.
Takeaway
In reaffirming the 'BB/B' rating with a stable outlook, S&P emphasized the cushion provided by enlarged reserves, driven principally by gold, even as the agency flagged medium-term fiscal and external considerations tied to the government’s investment program and potential commodity price shifts.