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World June 4, 2026 08:57 PM

Peru Runoff Poised on a Knife-Edge as Sanchez Narrows Gap With Fujimori, Ipsos Poll Finds

New survey shows left-leaning Roberto Sanchez edging to 43.8% against Keiko Fujimori's 43.2% ahead of Sunday's decisive vote

By Jordan Park

An Ipsos poll conducted on June 3 finds leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez gaining ground on conservative Keiko Fujimori ahead of Peru's presidential runoff, with both candidates still within the poll's margin of error. Sanchez recorded 43.8% support to Fujimori's 43.2% in the survey, while roughly 13% of respondents said they would cast blank or annulled ballots. The result follows an earlier Ipsos poll showing a wider lead for Fujimori and comes as Peru prohibits publication of polls in the final week before the election.

Peru Runoff Poised on a Knife-Edge as Sanchez Narrows Gap With Fujimori, Ipsos Poll Finds

Key Points

  • Ipsos poll conducted on June 3 shows Roberto Sanchez at 43.8% and Keiko Fujimori at 43.2%, within a ±2.1% margin of error.
  • About 13% of respondents said they would vote blank or annul their ballot; a May 31 Ipsos poll had shown Fujimori at 38% and Sanchez at 35% with 27% undecided.
  • Fujimori, running for the fourth time and described as pro-market, led the first-round vote on April 12 with 17.18%; Sanchez came second with 12.03% - sectors likely to be sensitive include financial markets and investor sentiment given the pro-market descriptor.

As Peru approaches its presidential runoff on Sunday, a fresh Ipsos survey taken on June 3 indicates leftist Roberto Sanchez has closed the gap on conservative rival Keiko Fujimori, though the race remains statistically tied.

The poll places Sanchez at 43.8% of intended votes and Fujimori at 43.2%. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 2.1%, according to sources close to Ipsos.

About 13% of those surveyed said they intended to cast blank ballots or annul their vote — a substantial share in a contest where the top two candidates are within the poll's error band. A previous Ipsos poll published on May 31 showed Fujimori with 38% and Sanchez with 35%, with 27% of voters still undecided at that time.

Fujimori, who is running for the presidency for the fourth time and is described as pro-market in the poll report, led the first round of voting on April 12 with 17.18% of the vote. Sanchez narrowly finished second in that first round with 12.03%.

The recent movement toward Sanchez coincides with reporting that he has tempered some elements of his public messaging. The poll summary notes Sanchez as an ally of ousted and jailed former President Pedro Castillo.

Peruvian law bars the publication of polls during the final week before a presidential election. Surveys may still be conducted in that period provided that local media do not publish the findings.

Poll specifics

  • The Ipsos survey was carried out on June 3 and carries a margin of error of ±2.1%.
  • Approximately 13% of respondents said they would vote blank or annul their ballot.
  • An earlier Ipsos poll released on May 31 recorded Fujimori at 38% and Sanchez at 35%, with 27% undecided at that time.

Context from the first round

  • Keiko Fujimori won the first round on April 12 with 17.18% of votes.
  • Roberto Sanchez finished second in the first round with 12.03%.

Legal note

Peruvian regulations prohibit the publication of polls in the last week prior to a presidential election. Polling activity may continue if not published by local media during that restricted period.

Risks

  • Statistical tie within the poll's ±2.1% margin of error creates uncertainty over the likely election outcome - this uncertainty can affect market and investor reactions.
  • A sizable 13% of respondents indicating blank or annulled ballots injects unpredictability into turnout and final results - this could reverberate in sectors sensitive to political stability.
  • The legal restriction on publishing polls during the final week limits public access to updated polling data, reducing transparency on late shifts in voter intentions and complicating market and policy forecasting.

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